Friday Estimates: Furious Falls 75%, Still Dominates Friday with $11.2 million
April 22, 2017
The Fate of the Furious dominated the box office chart on Friday with $11.2 million. This could be more than any other film will earn during the entire weekend. That’s the good news. The bad news is this still represents a decline of just over 75% from its opening Friday. This is not good by any stretch of the word, but it is also not unexpected. The film will rebound on Saturday, and earn about $35.5 million over the weekend, according to Universal, which is close to our prediction and will lift the film’s running tally to $160 million. This keeps The Fate of the Furious on pace for $200 million and the film should become the third film released in 2017 to get to that milestone. It might overtake Logan on the yearly chart, but Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 will probably get there first.
The Boss Baby is the only other film with a good shot at a $10-million weekend after earning $3.1 million on Friday, putting it on pace for just over $11 million over three days. The film has likely already made enough worldwide to pay for its entire production budget, so it should break even early in its home market run.
Beauty and the Beast was next with $2.64 million. This might be enough to get it to $10 million over the weekend for a six-week total of $470 million. Interestingly, The Jungle Book also earned about $10 million during its sixth weekend of release and went on to pull in more than $30 million during the rest of its run. If Beauty and the Beast can do the same, it will crack $500 million domestically.
The rest of the box office was a complete mess with six films fighting for fourth place with between $4 million and $5 million over the weekend. This includes three new releases and three holdovers. The biggest of the new releases appears to be Unforgettable, even though it is struggled even more than I thought it would, earning just $1.67 million on Friday. The film earned the worst reviews of the new releases this weekend and only managed a C from CinemaScore, so its legs will likely be terrible and it won’t stick around in fourth place for long. It will likely drop to eighth with just $4.2 million during its opening weekend. The only good news here is its production budget, which is just $12 million. It will still lose money, but it won’t lose a lot.
Born in China was right behind with $1.59 million on Friday. It will hold up better thanks in part to its target audience and its word of mouth. Not only is it earning the best reviews of the weekend, it also earned an A minus from CinemaScore. Granted, it is still not doing great, but an opening weekend of $4.6 million is in line with the past two Disney Nature movies.
The Promise was next with $1.44 million on Friday, meaning it will likely finish with under $4 million over the weekend, which is below the Mendoza Line. It only managed to earn 46% positive reviews, but it did earn an A minus from CinemaScore, so its legs won’t be terrible. On the other hand, its opening theater average is going to be low enough that theater owners will drop it rather quickly.
As for the holdovers fighting for fourth place, Going in Style did the best with $1.4 million. The reviews are not great, but it is aimed at an under-served target demographic, one that doesn’t rush out to the theaters opening weekend, which explains its legs. The film should earn fourth place with close $5 million over the weekend, pushing its domestic box office past $30 million. At this pace, the film might come close to $50 million, which is enough to call it a sleeper hit.
Gifted continued to expand with $1.36 million in just under 2,000 theaters on Friday. Its reviews are better than most new releases and it is a holdover in most markets, so its internal multiplier should be strong. Look for $4.7 million over the weekend, while it too could continue to do well enough to become a sleeper hit.
The final holdover with a shot at the top five is Smurfs: The Lost Village, which earned $1.1 million on Friday. It is a kids movie, so it should bounce back the most on Saturday, meaning it could earn just over $4.5 million over the weekend. $4.4 million is more likely.
The Lost City of Z expanded into over 600 theaters and it was able to grab tenth place with $660,000. It will finish the weekend with approximately $2 million, which isn’t bad for a limited release, but not good enough to justify further expansion.
Even further down the list, we find Phoenix Forgotten earning $640,000. The film will miss the Mendoza Line by a substantial number. Its reviews are 50% positive, but it only managed a C minus from CinemaScore. That’s terrible, even for a horror movie. Look for $1.5 million over the weekend and a very short stay in theaters.
Finally we get to Free Fire, which is arguably the biggest miss of the week, as the film only managed $380,000 on Friday and will finish the weekend with $1 million. The reviews are good, but not good enough to overcome this start. Perhaps it will find an audience on the home market. The film cost just $10 million to make, but A24 bought the rights after the previous distributor, Alchemy, had financial troubles, so it likely paid a lot less than that for its rights. If it can become a cult hit on the home market, it might break even, eventually.
- Unforgettable Comparisons
- Born in China Comparisons
- The Promise Comparisons
- Free Fire Comparisons
- Phoenix Forgotten Comparisons
Filed under: Friday Estimates, The Lost City of Z, Smurfs: The Lost Village, Logan, The Boss Baby, Unforgettable, Free Fire, Beauty and the Beast, The Fate of the Furious, The Promise, Going in Style, Gifted, Born in China, Phoenix Forgotten