Weekend Predictions: April Circles the Drain

April 27, 2017

The Circle

The last weekend in April is usually a terrible weekend and this year is no different. There is only one truly wide release this week, The Circle, although How to be a Latin Lover has a shot at the top five. There are also two films opening in approximately 500 theaters hoping to sneak into the top ten: Sleight and Baahubali 2: The Conclusion. However, while it seems like a busy week for new releases, The Fate of the Furious will easily remain in first place. In fact, the top five this week could be nearly identical to the top five last week, with The Circle being the only nearly guaranteed new addition. This weekend last year, The Jungle Book led the way with $44 million, while the biggest new release was Keanu with just under $10 million. The new releases might be stronger this time around, but there’s almost no way 2017 will be able to compete with The Jungle Book.

The Fate of the Furious will remain in first place for the third weekend in a row with about $18 million giving it roughly $190 million after 17 days of release. This is a great run, unless you compare it to its $250 million production budget and likely $150 million worldwide advertising budget. Fortunately, its doing even better internationally, so it will have no trouble breaking even by the time it enters the home market.

The Circle stars Emma Watson as a young woman who starts working at a mysterious tech company run by Tom Hanks. She begins to suspect there’s more to this company than its public face. This is an interesting setup, but given its release date, it likely had a rough execution. So far there are not enough reviews on Rotten Tomatoes to judge, but it looks like its reviews will be mixed, rather than a disaster. As for its box office potential, an opening weekend of just over $10 million seems like the low end of expectations, while it could challenge for first place with just over $15 million. I think the lower end is a little more likely and I’m going with $12 million over the weekend.

The Boss Baby will add another $9 million to its running tally putting it just a few days away from $150 million domestically. Combined with its international numbers, it will be at roughly $400 million by the end of the weekend. This is more than enough to pay for its entire production budget and a sizable chunk of its advertising budget. The movie does setup a sequel, so I’m sure Fox is already contemplating the idea.

Beauty and the Beast should earn fourth place with just over $6 million, but it might slip to fifth place, depending on the competition.

How to be a Latin Lover is only opening in 1,000 theaters; however, films aimed at Hispanic audiences have had some recent success and the genre could breakout into the mainstream, so it has a real shot at the top five. For example, Instructions Not Included opened in far fewer theaters but scored fourth place with nearly $8 million. Could How to be a Latin Lover earn the same level of success? It’s possible. That said, I think it is wiser to be a little more cautious. There’s only one review on Rotten Tomatoes, which suggests not enough buzz to crack $10,000 on the theater average chart. I think it will come close giving the film fifth place with $5 million. On the other hand, if it struggles even a little bit, it could miss the top five with Going in Style ready to take its place.

Of the two films opening in selected cities, Sleight has the louder buzz, at least among mainstream audiences. It was originally scheduled for a wide release, but that’s not happening now. Worse still, its reviews went from overall positive to mixed, so it will likely really struggle to find an audience. There were several films to miss the Mendoza Line last weekend and this one appears to be yet another bomb. Look for just $1 million and a quick exit from theaters.

Baahubali 2: The Conclusion is a sequel to Baahubali: The Beginning, a film that most moviegoers here have never heard of, despite the original opening in the top ten back in 2015. Baahubali 2 is opening in nearly twice as many theaters and would only need to come close to the original to also earn a spot in the top ten. Will it do so? I’m not sure. There are no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, which isn’t uncommon for Indian films, but it does make it harder to predict its box office potential. The original still only has six reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, but five of them are positive, so those who saw the original will likely want to come back for more. I don’t think it will match the original film, but will come close enough to $3 million to earn a spot in the top ten.

- The Circle Comparisons
- How to be a Latin Lover Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Boss Baby, Beauty and the Beast, The Fate of the Furious, The Circle, Going in Style, Sleight, How to Be a Latin Lover, Tom Hanks, Emma Watson