Weekend Predictions: Guarding the Box Office against Civil War

May 4, 2017

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2

The summer blockbuster season unofficially begins this weekend with the release of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2. There are no other films opening wide this week, so it will dominate the chart like few films are able to. In fact, the film’s only real competition is Captain America: Civil War, which opened this weekend last year. There’s very little chance Vol 2 will start as fast as Civil War started, but it could have better legs. I think 2017 will lose the year-over-year comparison this weekend, but the rest of the month should be better.

Guardians of the Galaxy was the biggest introductory movie in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, so a sequel was inevitable. The only question was if Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 would live up to its predecessor. The answer to that is not really, but it comes very close. The film’s reviews are six points lower than the original film’s reviews were, but 85% positive is still a major success for a wide release. As for its box office chances, it appears on track for a $150 million to $160 million opening weekend, with a slim shot at $170 million or more. This means even at the high end it won’t match Beauty and the Beast's record for the biggest opening of 2017, but even on the low end it will compete for a spot in the top five May openings of all-time. I’m going with an opening of $156 million, but I hope I’m being too pessimistic.

The Fate of the Furious will be a distant second place with between $7 million and $8 million. It will be hurt the most by Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2, because they share a similar target audience. That said, this will be enough to cross $200 million early in the weekend, which is reason to celebrate. It will make enough domestically to pay for nearly all its global advertising, while it will make enough internationally to cover its entire production budget.

How to be a Latin Lover will be close behind with $7 million over the weekend. It is not expanding significantly like I thought it would, but Instructions Not Included had good legs, so I think this one will as well.

The Boss Baby will drop down to $6 million over the weekend. It is losing a lot of theaters, about 500 from early reports, but at least there’s no direct competition to deal with.

Baahubali 2: The Conclusion opened in third place, but it might drop out of the top five, as Bollywood films tend to have really short legs. It will likely fall more than 60% to $4 million, putting it in a three-way tie with The Circle and Beauty and the Beast. I think Beauty and the Beast will return to the top five over the weekend.

- Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Boss Baby, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2, Beauty and the Beast, The Fate of the Furious, The Circle, How to Be a Latin Lover, Marvel Cinematic Universe