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Weekend Predictions: Can the New Releases Snatch Victory Away from Guardians?

May 11th, 2017

Snatched

There are two wide releases coming out this week, King Arthur: Legend of the Sword and Snatched. However, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 will likely destroy them at the box office. The real question is whether or not the top three films this year will out-earn the three films from this weekend last year. At the beginning of the month, I thought that would happen, but now I’m not so sure. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 missed expectations last weekend and King Arthur: Legend of the Sword and Snatched haven’t seen their buzz grow like most new releases do. I don’t think 2017 will get crushed like it did last weekend, but I also don’t think it will end its mini-losing streak either.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 should have no trouble earning first place at the box office this weekend. The only question is whether or not it will hold on better than Civil War did last year. A 59% decline would leave Vol 2 with just under $60 million this weekend. I think it will beat that figure, barely, earning just over $60 million this weekend. That will still be enough to push its running tally to over $240 million in just ten days of release and into ninth place in the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Since the film is also earning excellent reviews, there will be a third installment of this Guardians of the Galaxy franchise. It won’t be made until after the Infinity War wraps up, so it might have a different look.

I read a story that the test screening for King Arthur: Legend of the Sword went so well that a major theater chain in the United States was adding additional screens for the film’s opening weekend. If this is true, then expectations were really, really low to begin with. I say this, because so far the film’s reviews are just 23% positive. The buzz is also not good; it’s not very positive, nor is it very loud. Furthermore, there’s not much in the way of star power. At the high end, it could top $25 million, but just over $20 million seems more likely.

Snatched is the second film starring and written by Amy Schumer. Her first such film was Trainwreck, which earned stunning reviews and topped $100 million at the box office. This film isn’t going to do the same. The film’s reviews are only 37% positive, while the buzz for the film is rather quiet. It should compete for second place, but I think it will come up short with just under $20 million. It will likely have better legs than King Arthur: Legend of the Sword will, while it cost a lot less, so it will be a better film financially.

The Fate of the Furious, The Boss Baby, and Beauty and the Beast will compete for fourth place with between $4 million and $5 million. All three films are financial hits, to one degree or another, so whichever one doesn’t make it in the top five will be just fine.

- King Arthur: Legend of the Sword Comparisons
- Snatched Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, King Arthur: Legend of the Sword, The Boss Baby, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2, Beauty and the Beast, The Fate of the Furious, Snatched, Marvel Cinematic Universe, Guardians of the Galaxy, Amy Schumer
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