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Weekend Estimates: Cars 3 Has Fast Opening Lap

June 17th, 2017

Cars 3

As anticipated, Cars 3 is cruising to the top of the box office chart this weekend, with Disney predicting a weekend of $53.547 million, as of Sunday morning. While that’s a very respectable figure in anyone’s book (and continues Disney’s domination at the box office this year), it’s down markedly from Cars 2’s $66.1 million opening weekend in 2011, and points towards a final domestic box office around $150 million. If that proves to be the case, it’ll be the second-worst performer ever for Pixar, beating only The Good Dinosaur. Talk of a decline at Pixar is over-blown, in my opinion, but this is still a so-so result by their high standards.

Disney reasonably point out that this is the 16th Pixar film to open at number one domestically, out of their 18 releases, all of which earned an A-range CinemaScore. That does mean it can hope for decent legs, but Despicable Me 3’s release in just two week’s time looms large. Overseas, Cars 3 is opening in just a handful of territories and will pick up around $21.3 million this weekend. Its biggest markets to date are Mexico ($5.9m), Russia ($4.8m), Poland ($1.6m), Panama ($1.3m), and Colombia ($1.0m).

Two other films are making good starts this weekend. All Eyez on Me is headed for about $27 million from 2,471 theaters for Lionsgate. The film is getting poor reviews, and might not stick around for long, but it doesn’t need much more to be a solid earner. 47 Meters Down will pick up $11.5 million for Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures. That’s an impressive performance for a studio in only their second outing—it’s usually a challenge to set up a good distribution chain from scratch—and the film has just good enough reviews, and a theater average, at $5,066, just good enough to keep the film playing for a few weeks.

The same cannot be said, alas, for The Book of Henry, with $1.4 million from 579 theaters this weekend. The audience response has been better than the critics, with Focus reporting that 86% of people at the film rate it excellent or very good. That won’t be enough to save it, but it does highlight the challenge of making a film that tries to be a little different: a poor critical reception can kill it, even if there’s a receptive audience.

The big story among the returning movies, of course, is Wonder Woman, which will pick up another $40.7 million this weekend, for a total of $274.5 million to date. That gives it by far the best legs of any film in the DC Extended Universe, and means it’ll have both the worst opening weekend in the franchise, and the best final domestic box office. By way of comparison, the only film that earned more in its third weekend so far this year was Beauty and the Beast, which fell 50% from its second weekend. Wonder Woman will decline only 30% this weekend.

We’re still waiting on a few numbers, but it looks as though the big winner in limited release this weekend is Hare Krishna! The Mantra, The Movement and the Swami Who Started it all. Abramorama expects it to hit $21,473 this weekend in a single theater. We don’t have an official number for The Journey, from IFC Films, but it looks set for over $35,000 from two theaters.

- Weekend estimates

- All-time highest-grossing films worldwide
- Pixar box office history
- DC Extended Universe
- Pirates of the Caribbean box office history
- Marvel Cinematic Universe box office history

- Cars 3 comparison chart
- Rough Night comparison chart
- All Eyez on Me comparison chart
- 47 Meters Down comparison chart
- Wonder Woman comparison chart
- The Mummy comparison chart
- Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales comparison chart
- Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 comparison chart

Filed under: Weekend Box Office, Wonder Woman, All Eyez on Me, The Book of Henry, The Journey, Cars 3, 47 Meters Down, Hare Krishna! The Mantra, The Movement and the Swami Who Started it all, Pirates of the Caribbean, Marvel Cinematic Universe, DC Extended Universe