Weekend Predictions: Last Knight Opened Last Night with $15.65 million

June 22, 2017

Transformers: The Last Knight

Transformers: The Last Knight got off to a weak start on Wednesday earning only $15.65 million. That’s not a great start. Fortunately, Cars 3 and Wonder Woman should have strong holds this weekend and that will help the overall box office numbers. They probably won’t help enough to top this weekend last year in the year-over-year comparison, but it should be close.

Transformers: The Last Knight needs to be a monster hit to break even, because it has a monster production budget. Since Paramount hasn’t had a lot of box office success the past few years, it can’t afford to lose money here. Unfortunately, it looks like the film is going to struggle at the domestic box office. It only managed $5.5 million during its previews and only $15.65 million on Wednesday including previews. To put this into perspective, the last film in the franchise to open on a Wednesday was Dark of the Moon and it managed $43.23 million during the same period, while its five-day opening was $162.62 million. The Last Knight might not even earn the same legs, as it has the worst reviews in the franchise at just 16% positive and it is tied for the worst CinemaScore at a B plus. On the positive side, the film’s Wednesday number was higher than expected after its previews, so that could indicate better legs. If The Last Knight falls more than 43% on Thursday, then it is underperforming Dark of the Moon and that will indicate less than $59 million over the five-day weekend. Anything better than that and it will earn $60 million or more. I’m going with $63 million, due to the better than anticipated Wednesday result.

Cars 3 should have better legs than Cars 2 did, thanks to better reviews at 66% positive and a better CinemaScore at a solid A. Then again, Cars 2 fell 60% during its sophomore stint and it would be nearly medically impossible for this film to fall more than that. I’m expecting a sub-50% drop-off, but it could be close. On the high end, it will make $30 million, but I think just over $28 million is more likely.

Wonder Woman will be right behind with just under $28 million. This will push its running tally over the $300 million mark very early in the weekend and it will have no trouble becoming the biggest hit in the DCEU domestically. It might even top Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 and possibly become the biggest hit of the summer.

All Eyez on Me is going to get hit at the box office this weekend. Films aimed at its target audience tend to have short legs, as they rush out to see the film opening weekend. Also, the reviews are terrible, so even though it earned an A minus from CinemaScore, it will likely fall nearly 60% to $11 million.

The Mummy should round out the top five with about $7 million over the weekend for a total of $70 million after three weeks of release.

- Transformers: The Last Knight Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Wonder Woman, All Eyez on Me, The Mummy, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2, Cars 3, Transformers: The Last Knight, Transformers, DC Extended Universe