Friday Estimates: Dawn of a New Day for Last Knight

June 24, 2017

Transformers: The Last Knight

Transformers: The Last Knight suffered a 48% plummet on Thursday to earn just $8.14 million; however, it bounced back on Friday with $13.69 million. If we again compare this to Dark of the Moon, which is the last film in the franchise to open on a Wednesday, we get mixed messages. The Last Knight fell faster on Thursday (48% to 43%) but bounced back more on Friday (68% to 53%). If we assume The Last Knight will continue to outperform Dark of the Moon over the rest of the weekend, then it will earn about $42 million over the three-day weekend and $66 million over five. This is the worst opening in the franchise by a wide margin, but there is good news for Paramount, as the film earned $41.46 million during its first day in China, and $47.55 million if you include previews. The international numbers will save this film and justify more sequels.

Cars 3 fell a little faster than expected with $7.57 million on Friday. This is 61% lower than its opening Friday and suggests a sophomore stint drop-off of a little more than 50%. $26 million is still a good result, but not a great one, while its running tally will rise to just over $100 million after just ten days of release. It will end up as one of the weakest Pixar releases at the domestic box office, but it will be a financial success by the time it reaches the home market. Actually, it will be a financial success based just on its merchandising.

Wonder Woman was right behind, with $7.35 million on Friday pushing its running tally to just over $300 million after 22 days of release. It has become just the third film released in 2017 to get to that milestone and it is about a week away from being the biggest domestic hit in the DCEU.

47 Meters Down held on a lot better than most horror / thrillers do, down just 47% from its opening Friday to $2.33 million. It should make about $7 million over the weekend, which is great for a film that cost reportedly cost just $5 million to make.

On the other end of the spectrum, All Eyez on Me plummeted 85% from its opening weekend to just $1.90 million. It will bounce back on Saturday, but even so, it is on pace to lose more than 70% of its opening weekend haul to just $6 million.

Let’s end on a more positive note. Both The Big Sick and The Beguiled had monster openings in limited release. The former earned $134,000 in just five theaters while the latter earned $89,000 in four. The pair will not only top the theater average chart this weekend, they will be first and second for the year so far.

- Transformers: The Last Knight Comparisons

Filed under: Friday Estimates, Wonder Woman, All Eyez on Me, Cars 3, Transformers: The Last Knight, 47 Meters Down, The Beguiled, The Big Sick, Transformers, DC Extended Universe