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Friday Estimates: Leap! Comes up Lame as Hitman Tops Chart with $3.15 million

August 26th, 2017

Leap!

As expected, The Hitman’s Bodyguard earned first place on opening Friday, and better than average for the summer. It will likely finish with just under $10 million instead of just over $10 million. This isn’t a major issue for the film, but if it does earn first place with less than $10 million, it will be only the tenth film to do so in the 21st century. Being on this list isn’t necessarily a bad sign for the film and instead is a bad sign for the overall market. For example, Guardians of the Galaxy earned first place during its sixth weekend of release, with just $10.4 million, not because it was struggling, but because the competition was terrible. In this case, The Hitman’s Bodyguard is on pace to become a midlevel hit, while the new releases are all bombs. In fact, the film is on pace to earn enough domestically for Lionsgate’s share to cover its entire production budget and this is reason to celebrate.

Annabelle: Creation was close behind with $2.55 million on Friday, putting it on pace for a $8 million weekend. This is almost exactly as predicted.

Leap! was the best of the new releases, earning $1.63 million in 2,575 theaters. The average of the combined reviews remains in the 50% range, while it managed an A from CinemaScore. It is also a family film, so that should help its legs. However, it would need just over $5 million to avoid the Mendoza Line, while just under $5 million seems more likely. It could surprise over the rest of the weekend, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Wind River was next with $1.45 million during its first day of wide release. Because the film spent three weeks in limited release, it is harder to judge its legs. The reviews will help, so maybe it will top $4 million over the weekend. This is a little better than our prediction, but not by enough to really make a difference in the grand scheme of things.

There is good news and bad news for Birth of the Dragon. On the one hand, it underperformed with just $1.11 million on Friday, putting it on pace for just under $3 million over the weekend. On the other hand, the competition is weaker than expected, so this should be enough to earn a spot in the top ten. It won’t last in theaters long. Its reviews are 27% positive, while it only managed a B from CinemaScore. Combine this with an opening weekend theater average below the Mendoza Line and most theater owners will drop it as soon as they are contractually able to.

This takes us to All Saints, which missed the top ten with just $575,000 in 846 theaters. It should bounce back on Sunday, but even so, it is still on pace to miss the Mendoza Line. The film is earning 89% positive reviews, but that won’t be enough to save its theatrical run. It only cost $2 million to make, so it might break even just on its home market numbers.

- Friday Box Office Chart

- Leap! Comparisons
- All Saints Comparisons
- Birth of the Dragon Comparisons

Filed under: Friday Estimates, The Hitman’s Bodyguard, Birth of the Dragon, Annabelle: Creation, Ballerina, Wind River, All Saints