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Weekend Estimates: Threeway Tie at the Top

October 1st, 2017

American Made

Warner Bros. is claiming a weekend win at the box office for It as of this morning, but whichever way you slice it, we have a threeway tie at the top of the chart, based on Sunday morning estimates. In fact, we might have a rare weekend where three different movies will top the daily chart. American Made took a lead on Friday with a $6.17 million opening day, It won on Saturday with around $7.9 million, and the eventual result for the weekend will depend on whether Kingsman: The Golden Circle wins on Sunday, and by how much. As of this morning, Kingsman is projected to make $17 million, American Made $17.02 million, and It (a slightly optimistic, for my money) $17.3 million. We’ll know the real winner on Monday morning, and It probably has a slight edge.

All of which means that American Made is a bit of a disappointment. Tom Cruise is, for good reason, the top-rated star on our Bankability Index, bringing about $16 million in value to a non-franchise film, by our estimation. This outing is his worst opening weekend since Jack Reacher in 2012, and that film had great legs, thanks to opening just before Christmas. If American Made drops away as expected, it will end up with a box office total much closer to Rock of Ages’ $38.5 million. After adjusting for inflation, it is likely to be Cruise’s worst opening ever in the action/thriller genre. (Unadjusted, Days of Thunder opened with $15.49 million way back in 1990, equivalent to about $33 million today.)

The out-and-out disappointment for the weekend, however, is Flatliners, which looked like a good bet on paper, given the current nostalgia wave, but has fallen badly flat with critics and audiences alike. Its $6.7 million debut is lower than the original’s $10 million 1990 opening, even before adjusting for inflation. Also struggling out the gate this weekend are Til Death Do Us Part, with $1.5 million, and A Question of Faith, with $1 million.

That opens up some room in the higher reaches of the chart for a couple of art-house offerings. Battle of the Sexes expanded into 1,213 theaters this weekend, and will earn around $3.4 million for a 6th-place finish. Its $2,803 theater average means it won’t go much wider. Victoria and Abdul, however, has further to go after topping $1 million from just 77 locations this weekend, for 11th place.

Joining Victoria and Abdul in the $10,000-theater-average club this weekend are Pearl Jam: Let’s Play Two, which is projected to just squeak in with $55,274 from five theaters, and Take Every Wave: The Life of Laird Hamilton, with around $13,000 from a single location.

- Weekend estimates

- American Made Comparisons
- Flatliners Comparisons
- ’Til Death Do Us Part Comparisons
- Kingsman: The Golden Circle Comparisons
- It Comparisons
- The Lego Ninjago Movie Comparisons
- American Assassin Comparisons
- Home Again Comparisons
- mother! Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Box Office, American Made, Battle of the Sexes, Kingsman: The Golden Circle, Flatliners, It, Victoria and Abdul, Take Every Wave: The Life of Laird Hamilton, A Question of Faith, Til Death Do Us Part, Pearl Jam: Let’s Play Two, Tom Cruise
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