Weekend Predictions: Can Blade Runner Sprint to the Finish?
October 5, 2017
September ended on a slow note, but it looks like October will open fast. Blade Runner 2049 has been setting October pre-order records for a few sites, but it will also need strong walk-up sales in order to actually break the October weekend record, currently held by Gravity, with $55 million. I don’t think that’s likely, but at this point I would be shocked if it didn’t land in the top ten weekends for the month. The Mountain Between Us looks more and more like busted Oscar-bait. Its reviews have fallen from just over 70% positive to under 50% positive. As I started writing this, My Little Pony: The Movie still had no reviews, which is almost worse than bad reviews. (Reviews are starting to trickle in.) Finally there’s Victoria and Abdul, which is expanding. It isn’t expanding wide, or even semi-wide; however, it should still earn a spot in the top ten. This weekend last year, The Girl on the Train opened with $24.54 million. Blade Runner 2049 could earn twice that. If 2017 does win in the year-over-year comparison, then it will be on the back of Blade Runner 2049.
It has been 35 years since Blade Runner was first released in theaters. This week Blade Runner 2049 hits theaters and it should dominate the box office. Most expect the film to open with between $45 million and $50 million and there’s plenty of reasons to be optimistic. Its reviews are 93% positive with an average of 8.4 out of 10, so not only do most of the critics like the movie, they love it. That should really help the film’s word-of-mouth making the higher end of expectations more likely than the lower end. I’m going with $49 million, but if it beats that by more than 10%, it will become the fastest opening film of October.
The Mountain Between Us feels like Oscar-bait. I don’t know if the filmmakers were aiming for Oscar, but it clearly doesn’t have the reviews needed to get there. Worse still, its reviews have fallen below 50% positive, so it likely won’t be a box office hit. It does have the star power to help out during its opening weekend; unfortunately, this still means it is only aiming for about $12 million.
My Little Pony: The Movie is based on the Friendship is Magic version of the show, which was surprisingly popular when it first came out, back in 2010. The popularity has dropped a lot in those seven years and we’ve seen a number of animated films flop at the box office over the past few years. There is certainly a large inequality in cartoons. We’ve had four animated films that earned $100 million domestically, but we’ve also had films like Leap! and Rock Dog. There are two reviews and they are both positive, but not enthusiastically positive. I think the film will do better than Leap! did, but not as well as The Lego Ninjago Movie and I’m predicting an opening weekend of just under $10 million.
It should be next with just over $9 million, which will be more than enough to get to $300 million in total.
Kingsman: The Golden Circle and American Made should finish in a close tie with $8 million. I think Kingsman has a slight advantage here.
Finally there’s Victoria and Abdul, which is expanding to 750 theaters this weekend. It only needs a little more than $2 million to earn a spot in the top ten, while on the high end it could earn close to $5 million. I actually think the high end is more likely than the low end, so I’m going with $4 million.
- Blade Runner 2049 Comparisons
- The Mountain Between Us Comparisons
- My Little Pony: The Movie Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Lego Ninjago Movie, The Mountain Between Us, Blade Runner 2049, American Made, Kingsman: The Golden Circle, My Little Pony: The Movie, It, Victoria and Abdul, Ballerina