Weekend Predictions: Can Jigsaw Still Fit at the Box Office?

October 26, 2017

Jigsaw

There are three wide releases coming out this week, although only Jigsaw is expected to make any real impact at the box office. The other two, Suburbicon and Thank You for Your Service, are opening in barely more than 2,000 theaters and neither of them are expected to do well at the box office. Meanwhile, Tyler Perry’s Boo 2: A Madea Halloween, has an actual shot at repeating in first place, mostly because of the weak competition. This is terrible news for the overall box office, as it means we are going to have a hard time matching last year’s box office, even though last year there was only one wide release, Inferno.

Jigsaw is the latest installment of the Saw franchise. The previous installment did well at the box office, but it was a 3D movie playing during the 3D craze, so it got a boost in ticket sales as a result, not to mention ticket prices. This movie won’t get the same benefits and it is expected to be the lowest opening in the franchise, a title currently held by Saw VI. The taste in horror films has changed a lot since the Saw franchise was at its peak and without a 3D hook, there’s little reason for moviegoers to be excited about Jigsaw. Furthermore, its early reviews are mixed, to be kind, so word-of-mouth likely won’t save this film either. That said, it still has a better than 50/50 chance at earning first place. Look for an opening of just under $14 million and rather short legs at the box office.

Tyler Perry’s Boo 2: A Madea Halloween should be next with just under $12 million. The original Boo! only fell 40% during its second weekend of release and while this film will fall faster, because it is a sequel, it shouldn’t collapse. It won’t be the biggest hit in the Madea franchise, but it should do well enough to keep the studio happy.

Geostorm did beat expecations last weekend, but it also earned terrible reviews and only managed a B minus from CinemaScore. This suggests short legs and a $6 million sophomore stint.

Suburbicon is written by the Coen Brothers and directed by George Clooney. Combine the talent behind the camera with the amazing acting talent and it should have been a hit. However, critics have been giving this film terrible reviews and unfortunately, the buzz isn’t any better. It should still earn a spot in the top five with just under $6 million, but it won’t last in theaters for long.

Happy Death Day should finish the weekend with close to $50 million, which is what it needs to break even just on its domestic theatrical numbers. (The studio likely upped the ad buy after the film did so well during its opening weekend, so maybe it will need to get to $60 million to break even just on its domestic number.) Look for between $4 million and $5 million this weekend for a runny tally of about $48 million.

The final wide release of the week is Thank You for Your Service. This film shares a lot of its target audience with Only the Brave, which is not a good sign as that film struggled last weekend. Worse still, this film’s reviews are much weaker and its buzz is somehow even quieter. It would take a bit of luck just to make the top five, while missing the Mendoza Line with $4 million or less is a lot more likely.

- Jigsaw Comparisons
- Suburbicon Comparisons
- Thank You for Your Service Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Suburbicon, Geostorm, Only the Brave, Jigsaw, Thank You for Your Service, Happy Death Day, Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween, Saw, Madea, Matt Damon, George Clooney, Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, Oscar Isaac, Julianne Moore