Weekend Predictions: Two By Two
August begins with two films, 2 Guns and The Smurfs 2, one action film and one kids movie. Neither film is likely going to break records, but I think 2 Guns should at least do well enough to be a financial success, eventually. The Smurfs 2 probably won't be a hit here, but its international numbers are looking a lot better. Like this year, this weekend last year there were two wide releases, Total Recall and Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days, one action film and one kids movie. This year's new releases should easily trump last year's new releases; however, last year the box office was led by The Dark Knight Rises, which will keep the year-over-year comparison a little closer.
2 Guns is an action / comedy starring Mark Wahlberg and Denzel Washington. Both men star as undercover government agents looking in on a major Mexican cartel, only they don't know they are both undercover agents. The overall reviews are strong, at least for an action film, and it should do rather well at the box office. Look for an opening weekend box office of $33 million and with little direct competition over the coming weeks, it might have decent legs.
The Smurfs 2 is a sequel that no one was really clamoring for. The Smurfs opened this time of year in 2011 and earned $140 million on a $110 million production budget, which isn't particularly good. It did well internationally, which is why a second film was made. The first film's reviews were bad, but this film's reviews are even worse. Finally, the film opened on Wednesday and earned first place, but with just $5.20 million. It will likely fall on Thursday before pulling in $23 million over the weekend. Its domestic numbers might be weak, but the studio expects to earn a profit on the international numbers alone.
The Wolverine will plummet this weekend, despite its good reviews. The film is based on a popular comic book super hero, so it is the epitome of the Fanboy Flick. A 60% decline to $21 million is to be expected; however, that still puts it on pace to cross $100 million during its third weekend of release, which should be enough to ensure more X-men movies are made.
The Conjuring should add another $12 million over the weekend to its running tally, pushing it over the $100 million mark in the process. This film cost $20 million to make, so unless it cost more than twice that for it's P&A, it will have broken even by Sunday.
Despicable Me 2 will likely fall below the $10 million mark this weekend. That said, it should still earn fifth place over the weekend and its running tally is already north of $300 million, so the studio should be very happy with this result.
Date posted: 2013-08-02