Weekend Predictions: Can Any New Release take out The Butler?
There are three wide releases coming out this week, well, two and a half really. The World's End is only opening in 1,548 theaters, but it is also earning by far the best reviews. It is probably still too much of a niche market to take top spot. You're Next is earning great reviews and horror films do have a history of doing well at this time of year. The final wide release of the week is The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones. Not only did it open on Wednesday, but its reviews are terrible. Last year there were three wide releases, all of them bombed. Combined they made less than $14 million. The new releases should have no trouble topping last year's new releases, while the holdovers are also stronger.
While this year's new releases are stronger that last year's new releases, but none of them look as strong as Lee Daniels' The Butler. This film has a clear shot at repeating in first place, especially given its reviews and its target demographic. A sub-40% drop-off seems likely and I'm going with a prediction of just under $16 million. This would put the film on pace to reach $100 million in total.
Speaking of $100 million, We're the Millers is rocketing towards that number and should pull in close to $12 million over the weekend. This would give it a running tally of $90 million, more or less, leaving it about a week away from the century mark.
You're Next is earning reviews that are nearly 80% positive. This is fantastic for a horror film and incredible for a film opening this time of year. Unfortunately, it likely won't be a major hit. It could surprise and reach second place with just over $15 million, but third place with just under $12 million is more likely.
I'm a little more bullish than most when it comes to The World's End. I know it is only opening in 1,548 theaters, which is not a lot, but its reviews are outstanding and it does have a built in fanbase from the previous two films in the Three Flavours Cornetto Trilogy. The film is opening wider than those other two, which should help it earn fourth place. In fact, best case scenario has it earning third place with $12 million, but $10 million is a safer bet.
The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones opened on Wednesday earning first place... with just $3.01 million. By comparison, Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters earned $5.45 million during its Wednesday debut. And it is not like word of mouth will help it over the weekend, because its reviews are even worse than Percy Jackson's reviews are. I don't think it will reach $10 million over the weekend. If it does fail to reach that mark, then the studio might stop work on City of Ashes, the sequel.
If any of the new releases stumble, Disney's Planes will be there to grab fifth place with between $8 million and $9 million. While it started production as a Direct-to-DVD release, the film cost more than most such films. That said, it is well on its way to profitability.
Date posted: 2013-08-23