Weekend Predictions: Will Insidious have a Family Friendly Opening?
This week there are two films opening in saturation level theater counts (3,000 or more theaters). However, the two have very different outlooks. Insidious Chapter 2 is expected to cruise to the top, perhaps with well over $30 million. The Family's outlook is a lot weaker and some analysts don't expect it to reach $10 million. Last year the number one film was Resident Evil: Retribution, which opened with $21.05 million, while Finding Nemo 3D was in second place with $16.69 million. There's a chance the top two films this weekend will beat those two combined, but even if that doesn't happen, last year's depth was pathetic, to put it mildly. 2013 should have an easy time coming away with a win.
Insidious cost a mere $1.5 million to make and earned that at the box office in less than a day. It should come as no surprise that Insidious Chapter 2 was made. The film does have some serious advantages over its predecessor, mostly in terms of buzz. The buzz for the original Insidious was not that great, but the film did better than expected. It also earned good reviews, so most people who saw it will likely be interested in seeing this one. However, neither the reviews nor the audience reaction was amazing, while this film's reviews are weak. Even so, the film should open faster, but it likely won't last as long. There are some who think it will open in the $10,000 club on the per theater chart, which would give it $31 million or more, but that's a little too bullish for me. I'm going with $26 million, which is close to double what the first film made during its opening weekend.
The Family is also opening in more than 3,000 theaters, which is something I wasn't expecting. The buzz for this movie was middling, so I figured it would open in the low-to-mid 2,000 range. Unfortunately, its reviews are as weak as I was expecting and the buzz hasn't grown. On the low end, there are some who think it won't reach $10 million during its opening weekend. Even on the high end, it will struggled to get to $15 million. I'm going with $11 million, but I fear I might be too generous.
Riddick opened in first place last weekend, but due to the sequel effect and the genre, it will very likely fall more than 50% during its sophomore stint. In fact, it could fall more than 60% to just under $8 million. It's reviews are not great, but they are strong enough that I think it will avoid that fate, barely, and I think earning between $8 million and $9 million is more likely.
Instructions Not Included is adding another 200 plus theaters to its theater count this weekend, which should help it earn fourth place with $6 million. The film is already the second highest grossing Spanish-language film just behind Pan's Labyrinth and it is clearly finding an audience beyond Hispanics. Perhaps this will signal movie studios to make more films like this.
Lee Daniels' The Butler should round out the top five with just over $5 million, which will leave it just shy of $100 million in total.
Date posted: 2013-09-13