Weekend Predictions: Heat Up Some Leftovers
The weekend after the Thanksgiving long weekend is nearly always a dead zone for new releases, and that is certainly the case this year. Out of the Furnace is the only wide release this week, but its reviews plummeted compared to the early buzz. It should still reach the top five, but only because it would have to make less than $4 million to earn sixth place or worse. On the positive side, Frozen and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire should finish one-two each earning $30 million or more. By comparison, this weekend last year, the two biggest film earned barely more than $10 million. 2013 will easily win the year-over-year comparison.
Thanks to Frozen's family friendly target demographic and its stellar reviews, it should hold on better than most films this weekend. It has already reached $100 million, getting to the century mark during its 13th day of release, while it has the potential to add more than $35 million over the weekend. That's a little too bullish for my tastes, but $33 million is not. This is enough to keep it in theaters right till the end of the year, meaning it will have fantastic legs.
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire reached $300 million on Tuesday, the 12th day of its release. However, this weekend it will likely relinquish control over the box office. That said, it will earn just over $30 million and again will remain in theaters till the end of the year and it should finish with more than $400 million and become the biggest hit of the year.
Out of the Furnace is the only wide release this week, but its reviews fell from more than 80% positive to under 60% positive. Despite the strong cast and the early Awards Season buzz, the film just failed to win over critics. As far as its box office chances are concerned, they are not bright. Best case scenario has the film earning third place, a distant third place, with $8 million. Worst cast has it struggling to reach fifth place with $4 million. Split the difference and we get third place with $6 million.
Thor: The Dark World should be right behind with $5.5 million. It will finish the weekend with more than $190 million keeping it on pace to reach $200 million. It will fall out of the top five before then, but it will get there.
The Best Man Holiday should round out the top five with just over $4 million. It is closing in on $70 million and should finish its box office run with $75 million or so. This is more than enough to be a financial success.
Date posted: 2013-12-05