Holiday Schedule and Early Predictions
It's Christmas week and that means most stories will be delayed and / or shortened. Many studios are closed for the next two weeks, and some did so before releasing final box office numbers for the weekend. (This includes Paramount, so we we won't have a winner in our Box Office Prediction contest either.) International numbers will likely be delayed for a couple weeks as well. As far as weekend predictions go...
Of the five films opening wide on Christmas day, only The Wolf of Wall Street has a real shot at breakout success. Its reviews are more than 80% positive and it might top $25 million over the opening weekend earning $125 million in total. Just over $20 million and $100 million in total is more likely.
Grudge Match and The Secret Life of Walter Mitty will likely trade places over the coming days and weeks. I think Grudge Match will start off faster earning $15 million over the weekend compared to $14 million for Walter Mitty, but the latter will have better legs thanks to better reviews finishing with just over $70 million compared to just under $70 million.
47 Ronin's reviews are as bad as its early buzz was and there's little hope it will be a hit. Given its weak international numbers so far, it might not top $10 million during its opening weekend. This won't be enough for a spot in the top five and it is nowhere near enough to justify its $225 million production budget.
The final Christmas day release is Justin Bieber's Believe. So far there are no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes and the buzz is really quiet. It is possible this film won't reach the top ten during its opening weekend. I'm going with $7 million, which will put it in a tight race for tenth place.
This will likely be the last story published till Friday, while next week's schedule will likely be a mess up due to the holidays.
Date posted: 2013-12-23