Weekend Predictions: Will Frankenstein be Taken for a Ride?
After a record-breaking weekend, it's a letdown this weekend. I, Frankenstein is the only wide release of the week and there's very little chance it will be a major hit at the box office. It might overtake Ride Along for top spot, but I wouldn't bet on it. Last year Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters was the biggest release of the week earning $19.69 million over the weekend, while it and Mama were the only two films to earn more than $10 million. We should have four films earning more than $10 million over the weekend, so 2014 should win in the year-over-year comparison.
Ride Along broke records last weekend, but its reviews are terrible, so it could have a sharp drop-off this weekend. On the other hand, the audience reaction was better than the critical reception, so perhaps the film will hold on well. I think it will be somewhere in the middle. Look for just over $20 million this weekend, which will put it on pace to crack $100 million, possibly before the first full weekend of February.
I, Frankenstein is the only wide release this week, but sadly that likely won't translate into big box office dollars. A lot of people are comparing this film to the Underworld franchise, which is not exactly great news. The four films in that franchise averaged just $55 million domestically, including nearly $24 million during their opening weekends. It seems I, Frankenstein won't be able to match those numbers. Firstly, the buzz is rather weak, while there are no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, so it is likely a very bad movie. Maybe it will surprise and earn first place with over $20 million, but it might also not reach the teens. $17 million seems like a safer bet than either extreme.
The Nut Job should hold on rather well, despite the reviews. It looks like it will grab third place over the weekend with just under $13 million for a total of just over $40 million after two weeks of release. Is this a good run? Well, the studio must think so, because they have the sequel scheduled for January 15th, 2016.
Lone Survivor also has a good shot at third place. I'm predicting fourth place with just over $12 million, but if it tops The Nut Job, I will not be surprised. At this pace, it will reach $100 million, perhaps before January ends, while it might earn enough to break even just on its domestic theatrical numbers.
Date posted: 2014-01-23