Weekend Predictions: Will 2014 Keep Speeding Along?
Another week, another pair of wide releases. This time around, Need for Speed is competing with Tyler Perry's Single Mothers Club. Neither film is expected to be a huge hit, but Need for Speed has a better chance at earning first place. 300: Rise of an Empire does have a shot at repeating on top, but it could also collapse due to mixed reviews and direct competition. Last year, the box office was led by Oz the Great and Powerful with $41.25 million during its second weekend of release. No single film is going to come close to that figure this weekend. On the other hand, 2014 has better depth than 2013 had, so it could still come out on top.
Need for Speed is based on a video game, which isn't a good sign for its box office potential or its quality level. There has only been one movie based on a video game that earned more than $100 million, Lara Croft: Tomb Raider. And no such film has earned overall positive reviews. Final Fantasy: The Spirits Within came the closest with 44% positive reviews. Need for Speed certainly won't reverse that trend, as its reviews are currently only 22% positive. It might earn as much as $30 million at the box office, but it could also fail to hit $20 million. Unfortunately, it seems the lower end is a little more likely than the higher end. I'm going with $23 million during its opening weekend, but I hope I'm pleasantly surprised.
300: Rise of an Empire opened in first place with $45.13 million last weekend and it has a shot at first place this weekend as well. It all depends on if the film avoids a 50% drop-off. If it does, then it has a shot at first place with a little more than $23 million. On the lower end, it could fall more than 60% to under $18 million That might not be enough for third place. I think it will earn second place with $21 million over the weekend for a total of just over $80 million after two weeks of release. At this pace, the film will crack $100 million next Sunday.
Mr. Peabody and Sherman should be next. On the positive side, it is a family friendly film with great reviews and no direct competition opening this weekend. On the negative side... there is no negative side. Pie in the sky, the film could come close to $22 million, which would give it a shot at first place over the weekend. On the low end, it might finish with $18 million earning fourth place in the process. I'm going with just over $20 million over the weekend for just over $60 million in total. It too is on pace to reach $100 million, but it will take a few more weeks.
The second wide release of the week is Tyler Perry's Single Mothers Club. Some analysts think this film will be the worst opening film in Tyler Perry's directing career since Daddy's Little Girls. There are not a lot of reasons to be optimistic. First of all, there are only three reviews on Rotten Tomatoes and all of them are negative. Additionally, without Madea or a previous play, this film might not excite Tyler Perry's target audience quite as much. I've seen predictions as low as $10 million, which seems harsh, but also as high as $20 million, which seems too bullish. I'm going with $17 million.
Non-Stop should round out the top ten with $10 million over the weekend for a total of $68 million after three weeks of release. It is going to miss the $100 million mark, but it will come close enough that the studio should be happy with the result.
Date posted: 2014-03-14