Weekend Predictions: Can Captain America Close Out April On Top?
The final weekend of April ends with three wide releases. With The Amazing Spider-Man 2 looming large on the horizon, it should come has no surprise that the three wide releases this weekend and not expected to be huge hits. The Other Woman has a shot at first place, but Captain America: The Winter Soldier might block it. On the other hand, I'm fairly sure Brick Mansions and The Quiet Ones can't both fit into the top five. Last year, April ended with Pain and Gain earning first place with just over $20 million. That is likely more than the first place film this year will earn. However, this year has better depth than last year, so I think 2014 will still come out ahead.
Not all analysts think The Other Woman will come out on top this weekend and if it doesn't, I won't exactly be shocked. The film is a rather light, and isn't wowing critics. On the other hand, even most of the negative reviews are giving the acting a strong review, they are just complaining that the film doesn't do enough with its premise. On the high end, it could come close to $20 million at the box office this weekend. On the low end, it might struggle to earn $13 million. This range in box office leads to a range in rankings from first to fourth. I think it will grab first with $17 million.
Captain America: The Winter Soldier should be close behind with between $15 million and $16 million over the weekend for a running tally of $225 million. This is a great run, but with The Amazing Spider-Man 2 opening next Friday, it will drop-off quickly.
Heaven is for Real earned mixed reviews, but beat expectations during its opening weekend. It is also aimed at a more mature target demographic and these films tend to have good legs. This should help it earn third place over the weekend with just over $13 million. This will push its running tally past $50 million, which is enough to be at least a midlevel hit, while it should continue long enough to break even just on its domestic box office numbers.
Rio 2 should be right behind with just under $13 million. It is on pace to reach $100 million, but it won't get there this weekend and will fall out of the top five before it does.
Brick Mansions should round out the top five, but The Quiet Ones could give it a real race for fifth place. However, neither of them will be big hits. Brick Mansions' reviews are weak with most critics complaining that the is not enough story to go with the action. Also, the action here doesn't have the same style or flair we saw in the original. At best, it could top $10 million, but not by a large margin. At worst, it will fail to reach the top five with between $5 million and $6 million. I'm going with fifth place and $8 million.
The Quiet Ones is the best-reviewed new release of the week, but with a 43% Tomatometer Score, it is hardly a good movie. Additionally, Oculus opened a couple weeks ago and despite earning better reviews, it wasn't a big hit in theaters. Look for an opening of just over $6 million.
Date posted: 2014-04-24