Weekend Predictions: Will Spidey Swing into Action?

The Amazing Spider-Man 2 poster

It is the official opening of the summer blockbuster season and The Amazing Spider-Man 2 hopes to get the summer off to a fast start. On the positive side, it is the latest installment in one of the most popular comic book franchises. On the negative side, its reviews are below expectations and below the overall positive level. There are no other new releases to pick up the slack should this film fail to live up to lofty expectations at the box office, although The Other Woman should still do well in a counter-programming role. Last year Iron Man 3 dominated the way with $174.14 million during the opening weekend. There's no way The Amazing Spider-Man 2 will match that this weekend. There is a small chance The Amazing Spider-Man 2 won't make that in total.

The Amazing Spider-Man 2 is the only film with a chance for top spot. It is the latest super hero movie to come out and some reports have its production budget at $255 million. Even if it only cost the lower report of $200 million, it will still need to do well at the box office if it is to make a profit. (And since Sony announced they lost $1.27 billion last year, they really need to make a profit.) Unfortunately, Spider-man's popularity with moviegoers is falling and the reviews are not going to help. Granted, 56% isn't bad when it comes to a summer blockbuster, but we've come to expect more from the franchise. That said, the buzz is still good and it should dominate the weekend box office chart. Some are even predicting it will open with more than $100 million. I'm not one of those people. I think it will make just over $90 million, let's go with $92 million.

The Other Woman will be pushed into second place, obviously, but it should still do relatively well. The reviews are bad, but it is a film aimed at women and it is one of the few such films in theaters at the moment. It should earn just over $13 million over the weekend for a total of $46 million after two. At this pace, it should get to $70 million maybe even $75 million.

Heaven is for Real should remain in third place with just over $8 million over the weekend for a total of $65 million after three weeks of release. This is enough to cover all of is production budget and possibly all of its P&A budget. If it isn't profitable yet, it will be shortly.

Captain America: The Winter Soldier should be close behind with $8 million over the weekend for a total of $237 million so far. It is still on pace to reach $250 million, unless The Amazing Spider-Man 2 really does gut its box office this weekend.

Rio 2 should be right behind with just under $8 million. It will hit $100 million on Friday and it is doing even better internationally, so the studio should be very happy.


- C.S.Strowbridge


Date posted: 2014-05-02