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The Numbers News

← January 2016

Friday Estimates: No Grey Zone for Deadpool

February 13th, 2016

Deadpool

Sometimes a movie opens and it takes a while to figure out if it was a financial success or not. Deadpool is not one of those movies. Not only did its previews break a couple of records, it crushed a few more on Friday. Its opening day haul of $47.5 million is a new record for the biggest day in February, topping Fifty Shades of Grey by just over $10 million. It is also the biggest opening day for an R-rated film, topping The Maxtrix Reloaded for that record. It likely won’t have as strong legs as that film, despite its reviews, because the Fanboy Effect is strong with this movie. That said, the film cost just $58 million to make, so unless it cost more than that to advertise, it will break even just on its domestic box office. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: Invading a Theater Near You

February 12th, 2016

Where to Invade Next

It's Valentine's Day weekend, so it should come as no surprise that there's a few romantic films on this week's list. On the other hand, the biggest release is Where to Invade Next. Its reviews are good, but it is opening in 300 theaters, which could prove to be too many. More...

Contest: Race to the Top

February 12th, 2016

Race

There are three wide releases next week. Of those three, I think it is safe to say The Witch has the weakest box office potential. However, there could be a close race between Race and Risen. Furthermore, both films lend themselves to contest names. (Race to the Top vs. Rise to the Top.) However, faith-based films tend to be too unpredictable, so we are going with Race as the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Race.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of either two movies, one full-season TV on DVD release, or three single-disc kids shows. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of either two movies, one full-season TV on DVD release, or three single-disc kids shows. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of either two movies, one full-season TV on DVD release, or three single-disc kids shows. Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...

Thursday Night Previews: Deadpool Has Lively Debut - Updated

February 12th, 2016

Deadpool

Deadpool set two records for biggest February previews and biggest previews for an R-rated film with $12.7 million. ... I think it is safe to assume Deadpool 2 is on its way. The studio was expecting between $60 million and $65 million over the four-day weekend, but studios tend to downplay expectations so they can claim victory, even if the film is a little weaker than anticipated. With the record previews, I think it is safe to say it will top those expectations and even our $75 million prediction seems low. More...

Weekend Predictions: Deadpool Looking for Dead Presidents

February 11th, 2016

Deadpool

It's Valentine's Day weekend and Presidents Day long weekend, so the box office should be very robust, at least compared to last weekend. Deadpool has the best reviews and the best buzz and should have no trouble earning first place at the box office. Zoolander 2 is earning weak reviews, but nostalgia could help during its opening weekend. Finally there's How to be Single, which is a Romantic Comedy. Any romantic film should do well on Valentine's Day, even one earning mixed reviews. This weekend last year, Fifty Shades of Grey came out, which is a movie my mind keeps trying to forget happened. It earned just over $85 million during its opening weekend, but less than that during the rest of its run. Deadpool won't open as fast, but it very likely won't collapse next weekend either. 2016 will lose in the year-over-year comparison in the short run, but perhaps by Monday, the tide will turn. More...

International Box Office: Force Awakens Drops Out of Top Five, but Cracks $2 Billion Worldwide

February 10th, 2016

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

The Revenant returned to first place with $24.0 million in 67 markets over the weekend for totals of $176.4 million internationally and $325.9 million worldwide. By this time next week, the film will very likely be above $200 million internationally, while $400 million worldwide is within reach. More...

Contest: Seize Your Prizes: Winning Announcement

February 9th, 2016

Hail, Caesar!

The winners of our Seize Your Prizes contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Hail, Caesar! opening weekend were... More...

Theater Averages: I Knew Her does Relatively Well with $9,312

February 9th, 2016

I Knew Her Well

No films earned more than $10,000 on the theater average chart. I Knew Her Well came the closest with $9,312 in its lone theater. Kung Fu Panda 3 landed in second place with just $5,328, which shows you how bad the weekend was. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Broncos Biggest Winners, but Pandas still earn $21.24 million

February 8th, 2016

Hail, Caesar!

Super Bowl weekend was not a good weekend at the box office. The competition usually takes its toll at the box office, but this year it was particularly bad. Kung Fu Panda 3 led the way with just $21.24 million, while Hail, Caesar! was the only other film to earn more than $10 million. In fact, the weekend was so bad that Star Wars: The Force Awakens remained in third place during its eighth weekend of release. The overall box office took a massive hit, down 31% to just $95 million. This was 37% lower than the same weekend last year, but miraculously, 2016 maintained its lead over 2015, by the tiniest of margins, $1.34 billion to $1.33 billion. With a difference of 0.5% or $6 million, the lead will likely disappear during the week, but 2016 should get it back when Deadpool debuts this Friday. More...

Home Market Releases for February 9th, 2016

February 8th, 2016

Grandma

It's a strange week on the home market, as we have a monster release coming out, Spectre. There are also four or so releases that are contenders for Pick of the Week. But after that, there's a huge drop in quality and we quickly reach releases that are not even worthy of being fillers. Of the contenders, Grandma is the Pick of the Week and it is certainly worth picking up on Blu-ray. More...

Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: Grandma

February 7th, 2016

Grandma

Grandma was Lily Tomlin's first starring role in nearly 30 years. She clearly wasn't rusty and there was even some Oscar-buzz for her performance. That didn't pan out. Is it as good as its reviews? Or was nostalgia at play here? Were critics just so happy Lily Tomlin was back that their judgment was clouded? More...

Weekend Estimates: Panda holds off Caesar on Super Bowl weekend

February 7th, 2016

Kung Fu Panda 3

Super Bowl weekend isn’t exactly known for super-sized box office results, and this year will prove to be no exception, with Kung Fu Panda 3 comfortably winning the weekend with $21 million, down 49% from its debut. Hail, Caesar! will land in second place with $11.4 million or so, which is a decent performance from 2,232 theaters, although quite a bit softer than The Ladykillers’ $12.6 million first outing from 1,583 theaters back in 2004, and well behind the kind of numbers posted by True Grit. More...

2015 Awards Season: DGA Winners—The Revenant Bounces Back

February 7th, 2016

The Revenant

The Directors Guild of America awards were handed out and it was a big night for Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu and The Revenant. More...

Friday Estimates: Panda Buries Caesar

February 6th, 2016

Kung Fu Panda 3

Kung Fu Panda 3 will easily win the race for top spot at the weekend box office. Not only did it earn first place on Friday with $5.2 million, but of all of the wide releases, it will be among the least affected by Super Bowl Sunday. Unfortunately, this is still a little lower than predicted and it will likely only earn just over $20 million over the weekend. Its worldwide total is closing in on its production budget and it has barely started its international run, so there’s plenty of reason for DreamWorks to be happy, and there’s justification for another installment in the franchise. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: Regression and Regret

February 5th, 2016

Regression

It is a bad week for limited releases. Not only are there not a lot of films on this week's list, but most of them are earning reviews that suggest they will struggle in limited release. The biggest film, Regression, is also the worst film, while Rams is at the opposite end when it comes to reviews and theater count. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Hail Storms into Theaters

February 5th, 2016

Hail, Caesar!

Hail, Caesar! got off to a relatively good start on Thursday earning $543,000 at 1,815 theaters. This puts it in between the previews for Dirty Grandpa and The 5th Wave, meaning it is on pace for close to $11 million over the weekend. Its positive reviews could help it over $11 million, which would match predictions perfectly. More...

Contest: You're Dead to Me

February 5th, 2016

Deadpool

Next week, there are three wide releases, but only one of them truly matters: Deadpool. The rare R-rated Super Hero movie looks to become the first of that subgenre to earn $100 million at the box office. The big question is if it can turn its Intenet buzz into real buzz. I'm cautiously optimistic. Even its low-end expectations will very likely put it in first place next weekend. Because of that, it is the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Deadpool.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of either two movies, one full-season TV on DVD release, or three single-disc kids shows. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of either two movies, one full-season TV on DVD release, or three single-disc kids shows. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of either two movies, one full-season TV on DVD release, or three single-disc kids shows. Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...

Weekend Predictions: Hail, Holdovers!

February 4th, 2016

Hail, Caesar!

It's a new month and there are three wide releases trying to score and get February off to a fast start. That's probably not going to happen. Not only do the wide releases have to deal with Kung Fu Panda 3, but it is also Super Bowl Weekend with the Carolina Idontknows Playing the Dever Somethingabouthorses. ... Once the Seattle Seahawks were eliminated, I completely stopped caring about the NFL. The best new release of the week is Hail, Caesar!, which is the only film with a real shot at becoming a midlevel hit. Pride and Prejudice and Zombies started out with mixed reviews, but that might not be a dealbreaker for its target audience. Finally there's The Choice. There are still not enough reviews for a Tomatometer Score and the buzz appears to be getting worse. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water led the way this weekend last year, with more than all three new releases will earn this year. More...

International Box Office: Panda Tops Chinese Box Office earning $75.7 million Internationally

February 4th, 2016

Kung Fu Panda 3

Kung Fu Panda 3 opened in first place on the international chart with $75.7 million in six markets over the weekend. This includes a first place, $50.77 million over the weekend in China for a total opening of $57.47 million. The film also earned first place in South Korea with $9.14 million on 1,364 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $10.54 million. Its other major market opening was in Russia, where it topped the chart with $4.71 million on 1,190 screens. The film will clearly do better internationally than it will domestically. It is too soon to tell how well it will do worldwide when compared to the other films in the franchise. More...

Contest: Kung Fu Dino: Winning Announcement

February 3rd, 2016

Kung-Fu Panda 3

The winners of our Kung Fu Dino contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Kung Fu Panda 3 opening weekend were... More...

Theater Averages: Panda Eats the Competition with an average of $10,438

February 3rd, 2016

Kung Fu Panda

There was only one film in the $10,000 this week, Kung Fu Panda 3, which earned an average of $10,438. The best limited release was Rabin The Last Day, which opened with $7,940 in one theater. More...

Home Market Releases for February 2nd, 2016

February 2nd, 2016

Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs

This week the home market is led by a Blu-ray double-dip, Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs, while there is also an Oscar contender, Bridge of Spies, on the top. After that, the list is filled with bombs and weaker limited releases. It was an easy choice to select Snow White as Pick of the Week. More...

Featured Blu-ray Review: Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs

February 2nd, 2016

Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs

Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs is a movie I swear I've reviewed. Maybe I've reviewed so many Disney classics that I can no longer remember which ones I've reviewed and which ones I haven't. This film is absolutely a classic in both senses of the word. It is the first feature-length cell-animated film, first hitting theaters nearly 80 years ago. Additionally, it is widely considered one of the best feature-length animated films of all times. However, part of that is due to nostalgia and how ground-breaking it was. If you ignore the age and the technological marvel it was at the time, does it still live up? Or has it aged poorly. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Kung Fu Wins with $41.28 million lifting Box Office Along the Way

February 2nd, 2016

Kung Fu Panda 3

Kung Fu Panda 3 led the way during the weekend with $41.28 million over the weekend. This was below admittedly optimistic predictions, but still great for this time of year. The rest of the new releases were not as strong and it is likely all three will lose money in the end. Fortunately, Kung Fu Panda 3 was strong enough to help the overall box office grow. The overall box office rose 22% to $139 million. More impressively, and more importantly, the box office was 38% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 has pulled in $1.01 billion, reaching the $1 billion mark faster than last year. It wasn't the fastest year to get there, as 2010 holds that record thanks to Avatar. 2016 has regained the lead over 2015 at 1.9% or $19 million. Obviously the usually caveats apply here: It is far too early and that lead is far too small to be of real significance. That said, it is always better to be ahead than to be behind, no matter how small that lead it. More...

2016 Preview: February

February 1st, 2016

Deadpool

As expected, January was dominated by holdovers with Star Wars: The Force Awakens and The Revenant leading the way. That's not to say there were no new releases that did well, as Ride Along 2 and Kung Fu Panda 3 were hits with moviegoers. Looking forward, there is only one film that looks like a sure hit, Deadpool. There's a slim chance it could be a surprise $200 million hit. There's a much better chance it will be the only $100 million hit. Conversely, last February started with a $100 million hit coming out, The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water, while there were two other $100 million movies to come out that month, Fifty Shades of Grey and Kingsman: The Secret Service. Looks like 2016 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison. More...