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The Numbers News

← November 2016

Contest: Secret Prizes: Winning Announcement

December 6th, 2016

The Secret Live of Pets

The winners of our Secret Prizes contest contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Incarnate opening weekend were... More...

Theater Averages: Jackie Tackles Lion Earning Average of $55,743

December 6th, 2016

Jackie

Jackie led the way on the theater average chart with an average of $55,743 in five theaters. Given this start and add in its Oscar buzz and the film has a real shot at expanding wide. Last week’s winner, Lion, fell to second place with an average of $16,651 in seven theaters. Manchester by the Sea continues its impressive run with an average of $14,592 in 156 theaters. It still has room to grow. Miss Sloane earned an average of $11,213 in four theaters. It is reportedly expanding wide this weekend, but that can mean anything from a few hundred theaters to well over 2,000. Finally, Things to Come opened with an average of $11,030 in three theaters. More...

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Trailer

December 6th, 2016

Sci-fi adventure starring Chris Pratt and Zoe Saldana opens May 5 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Moana Sails to Victory with $28.27 million

December 6th, 2016

Moana

As expected, Moana dominated the weekend box office chart with a $10 million lead over its nearest competitor earning $28.27 million. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them also did well with $18.12 million. Unfortunately, those were the only two films to earn more than $10 million over the weekend and this left the overall box office down a massive 48% from last weekend to just $95 million. Worse still, this is 2.8% lower than the same weekend last year. I’m actually surprised it’s that close, because there were four films that earned more than $10 million last year, including the biggest new release, Krampus. 2016 was able to crack $10 billion before the weekend and has a very substantial lead at $10.12 billion to $9.66 billion for 2015. More...

Home Market Releases for December 6th, 2016

December 5th, 2016

Don’t Think Twice

There are a few releases on this week’s list that are worth picking up. The Secret Life of Pets is by far the biggest release of the week. That said, Don’t Think Twice is the best and the Blu-ray is our Pick of the Week. More...

The Mummy Trailer

December 5th, 2016

Monster adventure starring Tom Cruise opens June 9 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Weekend Estimates: Moana Stands Tall as Awards Season Hots Up

December 4th, 2016

Moana

The top of the box office chart remains a tale of two movies this weekend, with Moana maintaining an impressive lead over Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, but both movies doing very nicely heading into the Christmas season. Moana tops the chart again this weekend with $28.4 million, for a total of $119.9 million at the end of the weekend. By way of comparison, Frozen had earned $134.3 million at this point in its run, but fell a slightly larger 53% from Thanksgiving, compared to Moana’s 50% decline. The next few weeks should be very lucrative for the animated adventure, which is likely to sail past $300 million at the domestic box office. More...

Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: The Secret Life of Pets

December 4th, 2016

The Secret Life of Pets

The Secret Life of Pets is one of the biggest hits of the year and one of the biggest original animated films of all time. That said, strong box office numbers doesn’t mean high quality. Minions earned nearly $300 million more at the box office, but it is strictly for kids. Will The Secret Life of Pets have what it takes to entertain adults as well? Or is it another movie that only kids will enjoy? More...

Friday Estimates: Winter Chill is Good for Moana

December 3rd, 2016

Moana

As expected, Moana led the way at the box office on Friday. It did so thanks to a $6.45 million haul. This is just 4.2% lower than Frozen managed during the same period in its run. If Moana has the same internal multiplier over the weekend, then it will earn just over $30 million. That would be amazing. That would be $6 million better than expected. I think it is going to have trouble keeping up that pace, but a sub-50% drop-off to $29 million is still impressive, especially for this time of year. The film has $97.96 million as of Friday and by the time you read this, it may have already crossed $100 million on Saturday. If it continues to show legs like this, then the film will still be in wide release on Christmas Day, which will be a boon to its box office numbers. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Incarnate is a Ghost at Previews - Update

December 2nd, 2016

Incarnate

The numbers for Incarnate finally showed up and I can see why they were not in a rush to publish them. The film pulled in just $120,000 during midnight shows yesterday. That’s not the worst we’ve seen for a semi-wide or wider release, but it is close. In fact, it is so low that it is hard to find a good comparison. The three recent horror / thrillers we used as comparisons didn’t have previews or didn’t release preview box office numbers. Nearly ever horror / thriller released this summer was a hit, except The Darkness. That film earned $206,000 during its previews on its way to a $4.95 million opening weekend. If the two films had the same legs, then Incarnate will pull in $3 million this weekend. I think that’s on the high end of its box office potential.

Our original story can be read below. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: Jackie Hopes O stands for Oscar

December 2nd, 2016

Jackie

There are not a lot of limited releases on this week’s list. Things to Come is earning the best reviews, but it is a foreign-language film and that will limit its box office potential. Believe is the biggest in terms of theater count, but it’s a faith-based film and there’s a chance it will open well below the Mendoza Line. On the other hand, Jackie has the best box office potential and Natalie Portman could win an Oscar for her performance. More...

Contest: Christmas Time

December 1st, 2016

Office Christmas Party

There is only one wide release next week, Office Christmas Party, as the other two releases are expanding wide. This makes it easy to pick the target film in this week’s Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Office Christmas Party

Also... it’s Christmas time. And that means we have lumps of coal to give out, although not literally. Two of the three winners will receive either two previously reviewed movies or one TV on DVD release pulled randomly from the prize pool. The third will receive a lump of coal, a movie / TV show on HD-DVD. I doubt anyone reading this still has a working HD-DVD player hooked up.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will be one of the potential winners. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also be one of the potential winners Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will be the final potential winner.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...

Theater Counts (updated): Fantastic Beasts and Moana Still Widest Releases, La La Land Looms

December 1st, 2016

Moana

With Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them and Moana dominating at the box office, there’s not much room for new releases this weekend, although we do have one wide-ish one, and one limited release debuting in over 500 locations. Fantastic Beasts will remain the film widest release, although it drops 156 theaters this weekend to play in 3,988, just a smidgeon ahead of Moana, which stays in 3,875 movie houses. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Incarnate have a Substantial Opening?

December 1st, 2016

Incarnate

December usually starts on a really soft note, because the weekend after Thanksgiving is usually a terrible weekend. This time around, the wide release of the week is Incarnate, which is opening in 1,737 theaters and is expected to struggle to reach the top ten. That leaves Moana with an easy route to first place. This weekend last year, Krampus opened in second place with $16.29 million. Incarnate will only earn a fraction of that. On the other hand, the number one film was The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2, which earned $18.86 million during the weekend and Moana should easily beat that. I don’t think 2016 will come out ahead, but it also shouldn’t be a disaster either.

More...

2016 Preview: December

December 1st, 2016

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

November was good, but not great. Fortunately, 2016 had a large enough lead going into November that the month only needed to be good. In fact, it could have been mediocre and 2016 would have still had an excellent shot to end the year above 2015. As for December, it’s a race between Star Wars and Star Wars. Almost no one thinks Rogue One is going to match The Force Awakens, but if Rogue One earns just half of what The Force Awakens managed, then 2016 will come out on top in the year-over-year comparison. There are only two other films with a better than 50/50 chance of hitting $100 million, Passengers and Sing. Either one could earn second place for the month, but Passengers will likely start faster. Last December, the only other film to earn more than $100 million was Daddy’s Home, which earned just a hair over $150 million. There’s a chance both Passengers and Sing will earn more than $150 million, which would be a boon to the box office. However, Star Wars: The Force Awakens was just too strong last year and it would take a miracle for 2016 to have a stronger December. That said, it would take a complete collapse for 2016 not to top 2015 in raw dollars. The growth might not be enough to keep pace with ticket price inflation, on the other hand. More...