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The Numbers News

← September 2017

Wonderstruck Trailer

October 18th, 2017

Drama starring Oakes Fegley, Julianne Moore, Michelle Williams, and Millicent Simmonds opens on Friday ... Full Movie Details. More...

Home Market Releases for October 17th, 2017

October 18th, 2017

Spider-Man: Homecoming

It is one of those weeks. There’s a massive release coming out, which has scared away nearly all of the competition, so it is a really shallow week. Fortunately, that huge release is Spider-Man: Homecoming, which is not only one of the biggest hits of the year, it is also one of the reviewed. It isn’t the only contender for Pick of the Week, but the Blu-ray Combo Pack wins that honor. More...

The Numbers Turns 20

October 17th, 2017

The Numbers

On Friday, October 17, 1997 I hit a button in an Access database, uploaded some HTML pages to Geocities, and made a brief announcement on the Hollywood Stock Exchange message boards to let people know that I was starting to analyze box office for films to help them pick MovieStocks to trade on HSX. People responded positively, and soon the site, which I had decided to call The Numbers, was getting 200 or more page views a day, according to the little counter I had embedded at the bottom of the page.

That was 20 years ago. Today, The Numbers reaches around a million readers a month, and we provide the most complete, accurate, and up-to-date reporting on movie industry finances. Beyond The Numbers web site, our services help movie producers, exhibitors, distributors, and investors around the world analyze their movies’ and the industry’s financial prospects.

What started as a hobby to keep up my coding and analytical expertise, and help people play the HSX has long since become a broad-based movie financial business. But as The Numbers has grown and changed, the fundamentals have remained the same: leveraging our team’s skill and curiosity to connect the movie business and data analysis. More...

Coco Trailer

October 17th, 2017

Pixar’s animated adventure opens November 22 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Death Day Made the Box Office Happy with $26.04 million

October 17th, 2017

Happy Death Day

Happy Death Day led the weekend, as expected, but did so with a surprisingly strong $26.04 million. The only other truly wide release of the week was The Foreigner, which also beat expectations, albeit by a smaller margin. The overall box office still fell from last weekend, down 4.2% to $100 million. This is 1.4% higher than the same weekend last year. On the one hand, this is not enough to compensate for inflation. On the other hand, at this point, any win is worth celebrating. Year-to-date, 2017 is still behind 2016 by a large margin, but at least it was able to close the gap by a little bit at $410 million / 4.7% at $8.34 billion to $8.75 billion. More...

Featured TV on DVD Review: American Gods: Season One

October 16th, 2017

American Gods: Season One

American Gods came out about 15 years ago. Since it was first released, lots of people wanted to turn it into a movie, but it never went far, because turning the 465 page book into a 2 hour movie seemed fool-hardy. Turning it into a TV series, on the other hand... Was this the wiser path to take? Or is the book just too hard to adapt? More...

Black Panther Trailer

October 16th, 2017

Super-hero action movie starring Chadwick Boseman opens February 16 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Weekend Estimates: Young Women Power Death Day to Victory

October 15th, 2017

Happy Death Day

This weekend will be another winner for horror movies, with Happy Death Day powering into first place with a projected $26.5 million, according to Universal’s Sunday morning numbers. That puts it miles ahead of Blade Runner 2049, which failed to broaden its audience this weekend, and is down 54% to $15.1 million, for $60.6 million in total. More...

Friday Estimates: Friday was a Happy, Happy Day as Death Pulled in $11.6 million

October 14th, 2017

Happy Death Day

Happy Death Day topped expectations by earning $14.3 million on Friday. Even with short legs, it will still make $25 million over the weekend, possibly a little more. This is likely more than it cost to make and advertise, at least initially. I suspect Universal will up their ad buy after this result and will also increase the initial print run for the DVDs / Blu-rays as well. The film’s reviews are 68% positive, while it earned a solid B from CinemaScore. Earning a B would be bad for most movies, but horror films routinely fall in the C range, as horror fans tend to be very negative. For example, gorehounds will hate anything without enough blood, but torture porn will turn off even more fans. Pleasing even half of the opening day audience is impressive. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: Don’t Waste this Opportunity to see a Limited Release

October 13th, 2017

Wasted! The Story of Food Waste

The two biggest limited releases in terms of buzz, Breathe and Goodbye Christopher Robin, both failed to live up to expectations with critics and likely won’t have long legs at the box office. On the other hand, there are several documentaries worth checking out, like 78/52: Hitchcock’s Shower Scene, The Departure, Human Flow, and Wasted! The Story of Food Waste. More...

The New Mutants Trailer

October 13th, 2017

Superhero horror movie starring Anya Taylor-Joy and Maisie Williams opens April 13, 2018 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Should Happy Death Day be Happy with $1 million

October 13th, 2017

Happy Death Day

Happy Death Day started its box office run with $1 million during its previews. This is a mere fraction of what It earned earlier this fall, but it is better than the $772,000 Ouija: Origin of Evil earned this time last year. If Happy Death Day earns the same legs, then it will pull in about $18 million this weekend. Its reviews are not as good, but it is also not a sequel, so those two factors should balance out. This is exactly what we predicted, so I’m happy with this result. Since the film only cost $5 million to make and likely less than $20 million to advertise, the studio should also be happy. More...

Contest: Jump Scare

October 12th, 2017

Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween

Next weekend will be a busy weekend with up to five new releases coming out. I would be very surprised if all five films do actually open truly wide, while only Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween has a real shot at first place. Because of that, it is the only real choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening three-day weekend box office number for Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween.

We are continuing the Halloween Trick or Treat contests this week. Each winner will get a Frankenprize that is either Halloween Treat, a Horror film plus another prize, or a Halloween Trick, a movie so bad it is scary it was made plus another prize.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize, as described above. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven’t won, or haven’t won recently, and they will win the final win a Frankenprize, as described above.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don’t delay! More...

Theater Counts: Crush of Newcomers Dampens Opening Numbers

October 12th, 2017

Happy Death Day

This weekend and the four before it have been the five busiest weekends for new releases in 2017, with an average of just over 30 films being released in theaters each week, by our count. Aside from sending our data team scrambling, it makes it hard for distributors to secure screens, and the results can be seen in the theater counts for this weekend, and the current projections for next weekend. Happy Death Day has a shot at winning the weekend, but won’t be helped by playing in more than 900 fewer theaters than incumbent champion Blade Runner 2049. Death Day’s 3,149 venues, however, is quite a bit more than its competition. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Happy Day be the Death of the Box Office?

October 12th, 2017

Happy Death Day

I thought this would be a really busy weekend with Blade Runner 2049 repeating in first place and four wide releases competing for spots in the top five. However, last weekend, Blade Runner 2049 missed expectations, so it won’t dominate the chart this weekend. Meanwhile, two of the four wide releases are not going to open truly wide. This leaves Happy Death Day with a relatively easy path to first place. The Foreigner has almost made enough in China to pay for its production budget, so as long as it can cover its advertising budget here, it will break even before it reaches the home market. Meanwhile, Professor Marston & The Wonder Women is opening semi-wide and Marshall is opening nationwide. They may or may not open in the top ten. This weekend last year, The Accountant opened in first place with close to $25 million, while all three wide releases combined made $38 million. It is going to be tough for 2017 to match that. More...

International Box Office: Never Say Die Comes Alive with $66.28 million

October 12th, 2017

Never Say Die

Never Say Die rose to first place with $67 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $223 internationally. The film added $66.28 million to its running tally in its native China, which now sits at $222.75 million after nine days of release. The film is on track to top Kung Fu Yoga as the biggest comedy hit in China. In fact, it is on pace to top Meet the Fockers as the biggest Comedy hit in any one single market. More...

Novitiate Trailer

October 12th, 2017

Drama starring Margaret Qualley and Melissa Leo opens October 27 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Contest: Sharp as a Blade: Winning Announcement

October 11th, 2017

Blade Runner 2049

The winners of our Sharp as a Blade contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Blade Runner 2049’s opening weekend were... More...

Theater Averages: Something Good Comes out of Florida

October 11th, 2017

The Florida Project

The Florida Project dominated the theater average chart earning over $150,000 in four theaters for an average of $39,208. This is easily the best new release of the week. More...

Justice League Trailer 3

October 11th, 2017

Super hero action movie starring Ben Affleck, Gal Gadot, Jason Momoa, Ezra Miller, and Ray Fisher opens November 17 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Home Market Releases for October 10th, 2017

October 10th, 2017

Maudie

It’s a good week for the home market with top notch releases in nearly every category. Baby Driver is the biggest first run release of the week and one of the best releases. The Lure is a foreign-language film and one of two Criterion Collection releases in competition for Pick of the Week. Maudie is a Canadian limited release that did surprisingly well in theaters. Finally there’s Othello, which first came out more than 60 years ago. The only thing we are missing is a TV on DVD title. As for the winner, I’m giving Pick of the Week to, Othello, while Maudie wins Puck of the Week for Best Canadian Release. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Blade Runner Tops Chart with $32.75 million, but is it Enough?

October 10th, 2017

Blade Runner 2049

October started on a soft note with none of the new releases meeting expectations over the weekend. Blade Runner 2049 led the way with $32.75 million, which would have been fine, had the movie not cost $155 million to make. (That’s $185 million on the screen, $155 million cost for the studio, after you take into account tax breaks, etc.) Neither The Mountain Between Us, nor My Little Pony: The Movie made much of an impact at the box office, but at least neither of them bombed. The biggest news was It hitting $300 million. Overall, the box office did climb compared to last weekend, growing 16% to $105 million. This is just 1.2% higher than the same weekend last year, but at this point, a win is a win. Year-to-date, 2017 is 5.1% or $440 million behind 2016 at $8.19 billion to $8.64 billion. We really needed a big win this weekend to put a dent in that number. Unless November and December are really big months, 2017 has already lost the year-over-year competition. More...

Star Wars: The Last Jedi Trailer

October 10th, 2017

Sci-fi adventure starring Daisy Ridley, Oscar Isaac, John Boyega, Mark Hamill, Carrie Fisher, and Adam Driver opens December 15 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Jigsaw Trailer

October 9th, 2017

Horror movie opens October 27 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: Wish Upon

October 8th, 2017

Wish Upon

Wish Upon could go down in history as the movie that ended Broad Green Pictures production division. That’s not fair, as the film earned more domestically than it cost to make and only one other film they produced and distributed can make the same claim. The film didn’t ruin their production division. It was just the most recent film to come out when the decision was announced. Does the film deserve this infamy? Or is it a decent horror movie saddled with some bad luck? More...

Weekend Estimates: Blade Runner Stumbles Out the Gate

October 8th, 2017

Blade Runner 2049

After It smashed the September weekend record a month ago, further proving that films can open huge at any time of the year, prospects looked great for the long-awaited sequel to Blade Runner. Its trailers had created positive buzz, the early reviews were very favorable, and there was little by way of competition. The bar it needed to cross to break the record, Gravity’s $55.8 million wasn’t even all that high. But something went wrong on the way to the multiplex. More...

Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: Wonder Woman

October 8th, 2017

Wonder Woman

Wonder Woman is the fourth film in the DCEU and apparently it is one of the last. (Warner Bros. recently came out and said they would be focusing on individual stories and downplaying the overall continuity for a while. Smart move.) Wonder Woman broke a number of records during its box office run, including biggest box office hit for a female director, biggest super hero original movie, etc. and in the end, it was the biggest domestic hit of the summer. Did it deserve this success? Or was it only good compared to the previous installments in the DCEU? More...

Friday Estimates: What Happened? Blade Runner Struggles with $12.7 million

October 7th, 2017

Blade Runner 2049

I was bullish about Blade Runner 2049’s chances for a number of reasons. It was setting October records for pre-sales on a number of sites. Its reviews were over 90% positive. Its previews were a little stronger than expected, so everything was looking up. Then Friday happened. The film only pulled in $12.7 million on Friday, which is well below expectations. This is not a case of critics loved it, but the audiences didn’t, as it scored an A minus from CinemaScore. Perhaps not enough of the target audience even remembers the original Blade Runner and that’s why this movie is struggling. A lot of people thought it had a shot at $50 million this weekend but now $35 million is likely out of reach. $33 million is more likely at this point. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: Better Watch these Limited Releases

October 6th, 2017

Better Watch Out

It is a very busy week for limited releases with over 30 films coming out this week. Needless to say we’ve had to be a little callous, culling the list to a more manageable number. We are still left with a number of films that have a shot at finding a receptive audience. Some of these are like Better Watch Out, which will struggle in theaters, but very likely do well on Video on Demand. Others, like The Florida Project, could see its strong reviews turn to Awards Season success and that will be a boon to its financial success. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Blade Runs up a $4 million Tab

October 6th, 2017

Blade Runner 2049

Blade Runner 2049 pulled in $4 million in previews on Thursday night. Unfortunately, there’s not a lot of comparisons we can make here. The record holder for October is Gravity, but it opened in 2013, before previews were a major thing, so we can’t compare its $1.4 million in previews. Even The Martian’s $2.5 million previews isn’t a great comparison. We can say this is a good omen and a $50 million opening is a little more likely than it was yesterday. The reviews and its word-of-mouth should certainly help out, but it likely won’t be enough to break any records. More...

Contest: Feeling Happy

October 6th, 2017

Happy Death Day

It’s a busy weekend with four new releases coming out; however, only one of them, Happy Death Day, has a real shot at topping Blade Runner 2049 for first place. Because of that, it is the only real choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening three-day weekend box office number for Happy Death Day.

We are continuing the Halloween Trick or Treat contests this week. Each winner will get a Frankenprize that is either Halloween Treat, a Horror film plus another prize, or a Halloween Trick, a movie so bad it is scary it was made plus another prize.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize, as described above. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven’t won, or haven’t won recently, and they will win the final win a Frankenprize, as described above.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don’t delay! More...

Theater Counts: Blade Runner Cracks 4,000 Theaters

October 5th, 2017

Blade Runner 2049

It certainly isn’t as hard as it used to be, but anyone hoping for a record-breaking weekend for Blade Runner 2049 will be pleased to see the film crack 4,000 theaters this weekend. Warner Bros. reports it will play in 4,058 locations starting on Friday, which actually breaks one record already: it’s the widest October opening, ahead of (surprisingly) Shark Tale, which debuted in 4,016 theaters way back in 2004. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Blade Runner Sprint to the Finish?

October 5th, 2017

Blade Runner 2049

September ended on a slow note, but it looks like October will open fast. Blade Runner 2049 has been setting October pre-order records for a few sites, but it will also need strong walk-up sales in order to actually break the October weekend record, currently held by Gravity, with $55 million. I don’t think that’s likely, but at this point I would be shocked if it didn’t land in the top ten weekends for the month. The Mountain Between Us looks more and more like busted Oscar-bait. Its reviews have fallen from just over 70% positive to under 50% positive. As I started writing this, My Little Pony: The Movie still had no reviews, which is almost worse than bad reviews. (Reviews are starting to trickle in.) Finally there’s Victoria and Abdul, which is expanding. It isn’t expanding wide, or even semi-wide; however, it should still earn a spot in the top ten. This weekend last year, The Girl on the Train opened with $24.54 million. Blade Runner 2049 could earn twice that. If 2017 does win in the year-over-year comparison, then it will be on the back of Blade Runner 2049. More...

The Snowman Trailer

October 5th, 2017

Thriller starring Michael Fassbender and Rebecca Ferguson opens October 20 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Tyler Perry's Boo 2! A Madea Halloween Trailer

October 4th, 2017

Comedy written and directed by, and starring, Tyler Perry opens October 20 ... Full Movie Details. More...

International Box Office: Kingsman Remains Golden with $50.5 million

October 4th, 2017

Kingsman: The Golden Circle

Kingsman: The Golden Circle remained in first place on the international chart with $50.5 million in 77 markets for totals of $125.97 million internationally and $192.61 million worldwide. The film dominated the South Korean market with $11.89 million on 1,677 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $16.49 million there. It also debuted in first place in Mexico, with a less impressive $2.28 million. The film has yet to open in France, China, and Japan, so it should continue to rake in the money. More...

Contest: Halloween Arrives Early: Winning Announcement

October 4th, 2017

American Made

The winners of our Halloween Arrives Early contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for American Made’s opening weekend were... More...

Theater Averages: Victoria and Abdul’s Reign Continues with $14,184

October 4th, 2017

Victoria and Abdul

Victoria and Abdul did something very few films manage to do, it repeated on top of the theater average chart. This past weekend, the film earned just over $1 million in 77 theaters for an average of $14,184. The only other film in the $10,000 club was Pearl Jam: Let’s Play Two, which earned an average of $10,635 in five theaters. More...

The Leisure Seeker Trailer

October 3rd, 2017

Drama starring Helen Mirren and Donald Sutherland opens January 19, 2018 ... Full Movie Details.

A runaway couple goes on an unforgettable journey in the faithful old RV they call The Leisure Seeker, traveling from Boston to The Ernest Hemingway Home in Key West. They recapture their passion for life and their love for each other on a road trip that provides revelation and surprise right up to the very end. More...

Home Market Releases for October 3rd, 2017

October 3rd, 2017

Goon: Last of the Enforcers

It is not a great week for home market releases. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales is the biggest release of the week, but it is far from the best. As for the Pick of the Week contenders, they are all horror themed. Cult of Chucky is surprisingly good, especially for a franchise that’s lasted seven installments. Don't Torture A Duckling is a giallo film, and an important one in its director’s career. Up next is iZombie: Season Three, which is amazing, but it is always on the edge of being canceled. Finally, there's Vampyr: Criterion Collection Blu-ray. In the end, I went with the Don't Torture A Duckling: Special Edition as the Pick of the Week. Meanwhile, Goon: Last of the Enforcers Blu-ray Combo Pack earned Puck of the Week, for the best Canadian release. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Kingsman Wins Three-Way Race with $16.94 million

October 3rd, 2017

American Made

The top three films on the weekend box office chart landed in the same order as predicted; however, it was a much closer race than most thought it would be. Kingsman: The Golden Circle ended up on top with $16.94 million, just ahead of It with $16.90 million. The best new release of the week was American Made with $16.78 million. The other new releases struggled, to be kind, with Flatliners earning a distant fifth place and Til Death Do Us Part opening in ninth place. Overall, the box office fell 23% from last weekend to just $90 million. It was also 21% lower than the same weekend last year, thus ending 2017’s mini-winning streak. Year-to-date, 2017 has earned $8.06 billion, putting it 4.8% or $410 million behind last year’s pace. More...

The Florida Project Trailer

October 2nd, 2017

Drama starring Willem Dafoe opens October 6 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Weekend Estimates: Threeway Tie at the Top

October 1st, 2017

American Made

Warner Bros. is claiming a weekend win at the box office for It as of this morning, but whichever way you slice it, we have a threeway tie at the top of the chart, based on Sunday morning estimates. In fact, we might have a rare weekend where three different movies will top the daily chart. American Made took a lead on Friday with a $6.17 million opening day, It won on Saturday with around $7.9 million, and the eventual result for the weekend will depend on whether Kingsman: The Golden Circle wins on Sunday, and by how much. As of this morning, Kingsman is projected to make $17 million, American Made $17.02 million, and It (a slightly optimistic, for my money) $17.3 million. We’ll know the real winner on Monday morning, and It probably has a slight edge. More...

2017 Preview: October

October 1st, 2017

Blade Runner 2049

September destroyed the previous September monthly record for total box office take, with $800 million or so (we won’t know the exact figure until after the weekend), which tops 2016’s record of $616 million. Granted, this is almost entirely due to It’s record breaking run, and the rest of the month was merely average. Kingsman: The Golden Circle was the only other film to come close to $100 million. October doesn’t look any better, as far as depth is concerned. Blade Runner 2049 is widely expected to be the biggest hit of the month, but it is the only film expected to reach $100 million domestically. Boo 2 should be the second biggest hit of the month, while there are only a couple of other films that have a shot at $50 million. Part of the problem is the level of competition, as there are 16 films opening during the four October weekends. (Needless to say, some of the predictions below will be a little short, as there’s not much to say about a film that will barely open in the top ten and disappear two weeks later.) That’s way too many and most will be buried by the competition. Last October was a flop, as no film earned more than $100 million at the box office. There were a few films that came close, including the original Boo! movie. As long as Blade Runner 2049 matches expectations, 2017 should win the year-over-year comparison by a small margin. If we get one surprise hit, then 2017 has a real shot at closing the gap with 2016 by a significant margin. I choose to be cautiously optimistic. More...