This graph shows Lin-Manuel Miranda’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
We won’t know for sure until final numbers are reported on Monday, but it looks as though A Quiet Place: Part II will move back to the top of the box office chart this weekend, fractionally edging out In the Heights. The difference in their respective Sunday-morning projections is just $245,000 though, with Quiet Place expected to earn $11.65 million and In the Heights $11.405 million, which is within the margin of error (particularly considering box office is harder to predict for the studios at the moment as market conditions are changing so much). In fact, Peter Rabbit 2 (projected to earn $10.4 million) and The Conjuring 3 (projected for $10.02 million) are technically still in the running for the win, although that would be a big surprise given they’re over a million dollars back on today’s tracking.
However things shake out, there’s a good chance we’ll have four films earn over $10 million at the box office this weekend, which would be a new pandemic-era high if the numbers hold. The less good news is that In the Heights didn’t hit, well, the heights that were hoped for going into the weekend. It did come very close to what our model expected though.
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It’s beginning to feel like Summer in movie theaters as a combination of a musical, two kids movies, a family movie, and two horror films will make up the top six and fill up movie theaters this weekend. After three films topped $10 million at the box office last weekend, we could see four films manage the feat this time around, and In the Heights is expected to top $20 million by the trackers (although, as I’ll discuss in a moment, our model isn’t as bullish). The new releases should be enough to keep the total market flat or possibly slightly growing.
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Two wide releases arrive in theaters this weekend to challenge the horror films that have dominated the box office charts the past two weeks. After stellar openings for A Quiet Place: Part II two weeks ago, and The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It last week, the films opening wide this week couldn't be more of a contrast. The long awaited Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway makes its entrance after a series of release date changes. The sequel from Sony Pictures will open in 3,346 theaters. The original Peter Rabbit earned just north of $347 million worldwide back in 2018. Getting a jump on the weekend is Warner Bros’, In The Heights as it opens today, Thursday. The musical, directed by John M. Chu and produced by Lin-Manuel Miranda, will open in an estimated 3,400 theaters while also being available to stream on HBO Max. Early reports have the film tracking around $20 million in its opening weekend.
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Lights up on Washington Heights…The scent of a cafecito caliente hangs in the air just outside of the 181st Street subway stop, where a kaleidoscope of dreams rallies this vibrant and tight-knit community. At the intersection of it all is the likeable, magnetic bodega owner Usnavi, who saves every penny from his daily grind as he hopes, imagines and sings about a better life.
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Mary Poppins Returns was widely expected to be the big hit of last December and it was almost assumed it would be a monster hit. Most people expected the film to cruise past $250 million domestically and many thought it would top $300 million with ease. It barely topped $300 million worldwide. Its reviews weren’t bad, but it isn’t considered a classic like the original. Is that the issue? Is it simply a matter of expectations being too high for this film, or any film, to match?
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The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. It is still very early in the year and the predictive value of the Golden Globes is a little suspect, but there are still some things to learn here. For example Vice led the way with six nominations, so its Oscar chances have gone up, but don’t expect it to lead the way when the Oscars nominations are announced.
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November turned out to be a really, really good month. I thought 2018’s lead over 2017 would shrink, potentially by $200 million to $300 million. However, the lead actually managed to grow a little bit, thanks to hits like Ralph Breaks the Internet, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, and Bohemian Rhapsody. December has an equal number of potential hits, led by Mary Poppins Returns, which some think will top $300 million. Additionally, Spider-man Into the Spider-Verse, Aquaman, Bumblebee, and Holmes and Watson all have a realistic shot at $100 million or more. On the other hand, last December was stronger, at least on top. The Last Jedi earned more than $500 million just during December, which is more than any December release this year will earn in total. It could be more than the top two films earn in total. 2018 will win the in year-over-year competition; however, its lead won’t be as large as it is at the start of the month.
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The Greatest Showman’s box office life has almost mirrored that of a cliché Broadway musical. Before release, no one believed in its dreams: an $84 million circus musical starring Hugh Jackman and Zac Efron that was mocked by the bullies on film Twitter. It even had its darkest moment when it debuted at #4 with just $8.8 million, a definite sign of a total bomb. But then the rallying moment, as the film defied the odds and just kind of stuck around at #4 (and, on one weekend, #5) for 5 weeks straight, each weekend making more than its opening. Now the film’s soundtrack has reached #1 on the Billboard Top 100 albums, #1 on iTunes, and has over 200 million plays on Spotify. Two of the songs (“This is Me” and “Rewrite the Stars”) have been listened to over 50 million times each on Spotify (in comparison, the Spanish version of “Remember Me” from Coco has been listened to 12 million times). The film has earned a Golden Globe for Best Song and an Academy Award nomination for the same song. And, of course, it has shockingly earned over $100 million domestically. It currently stands at $128.2 million, which makes it the 15th-highest-grossing musical of all time, and it will climb higher on that list.