The firstTerminator movie was a relatively low-budget horror movie where the unstoppable killer was a Sci-fi robot instead of some supernatural force. Its sequel was the most expensive movie at the time and a pure action film with cutting edge special effects. What they had in common were stellarreviews and massive profit margins. Unfortunately, the films rapidly got worse in terms of reviews and when it came to box office returns. Terminator: Dark Fate had the worst financial performance in the franchise. Is it also the worst movie? Or were moviegoers unwilling to see it, because they were burned too many times in the past?
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It’s the year 2020, the year where we find out how many times you can say, “Well, hindsight is 20/20.” before you get punched. On the positive side, while December wasn’t a great month, it was good enough to help 2019 end on a positive note, a positive note that should continue into January. There are no real potential monster hits coming out this month, but there are three films that have a real shot at $100 million domestically. These are, in alphabetical order, 1917, which will rely on Awards Season to get to the century mark. Bad Boys for Life will have a much, much easier time getting to $100 million, assuming people still care about the franchise 17 years later. Finally, Dolittle is looking like a disaster with a really troubled production; however, a $100 million run isn’t out of the question and if it can get there, it will at least save face. As for last January, Glass was the biggest hit of the month in terms of raw dollars, but The Upside was more impressive, as it is one the biggest hits in STX Entertainment’s history. We need two of the three potential $100 million hits to reach that mark to keep pace with last year, but we also have one more weekend to get there.
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At a mysterious estate in the Maine countryside, newly appointed nanny Kate is charged with the care of two disturbed orphans, Flora and Miles. Quickly though, she discovers that both the children and the house are harboring dark secrets and things may not be as they appear.
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It is a slow week for limited releases and none of the films have a real shot at becoming a box office hit. Marlina the Murderer in Four Acts is earning the best reviews of the week, but it is a foreign-language film, so its box office chances are weak. Never Steady, Never Still is the film I’m most interested in. Its reviews are solid and it is also a Canadian movie.
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April was all about Avengers: Infinity War, which earned about as much during its opening weekend as the next two biggest films, A Quiet Place and Rampage, will earn in total. However, moving Infinity War to April has left a big gap for the first two weeks of May. It isn’t until Deadpool 2 debuts that we have a potential $100 million movie, while the week after Solo: A Star Wars Story closes the month on a strong note. Fortunately, both of those films are expected to earn more than $100 million during their opening weekends alone and combined could earn over $700 million domestically. Last May, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 helped the month get off to a fast start, but it was the only monster hit of the month. Infinity War opening a week early will mean the month will start slower, in terms of new releases, but Infinity War’s record-breaking debut should help 2018 come out ahead in the end.
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While Thanksgiving weekend is a boon for wide releases, the number of potential monster hits in theaters scares away a lot of the limited releases. There are some great releases, like Always Shine and Baden Baden, as well as some bigger releases, like Lion and Miss Sloane. Hopefully they will find audiences in limited release.
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The Martian opened in early October and became a huge box office and critical success. The film became the biggest hit in Ridley Scott's career and recently picked up seven Oscar nominations. Will I love it as much as the average critic did? Or will I be in the minority here?
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It's the first month of the new year, but the biggest hit might be a film released in December. Last month ended on a slow note with all five Christmas day releases failing to become hits, some more than others. (It's a little too soon to tell if The Wolf of Wall Street or The Secret Life of Walter Mitty will do well enough to break even any time soon, but neither is a serious hit.) There are still some December releases that will likely remain on the charts through the opening weekends of January, while there are some films that opened in limited release last month with a scheduled wide release this month. Of the purely January releases, I would guess Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit will be the biggest hit. Even then, it won't live up to the previous films in the franchise, even if you don't take inflation into account. Most of the rest of the new releases will be happy if they can become midlevel hits. Last January was led by Mama, which earned more than $70 million. I think Shadow Recruit will top that figure at the box office, while there are a similar number of likely box office bombs opening this year as there were last year. 2014 could start out ahead of 2013's pace, but it likely won't be a huge difference either way.
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