Bruce Nash explores the world of data modeling and information services
I got Barnes & Noble’s weekly member coupon today, which turns out to be a 40% discount on Barack Obama’s books.
Since the URL seemed fairly straightforward, I thought it would be interesting to see what happened if I added 1 or 2 to the document number. Et voila, history is rewritten at the drop of [...]
Updated with correction – the model also predicted Indiana incorrectly.
I’m going to do a more thorough analysis in the next couple of days, but I think I can say that the model worked very well yesterday. It predicted the times that Pennsylvania and Virginia would be called accurately (it was 33 minutes late for [...]
Here’s my prediction for election night with audio commentary.
Note that all times are Pacific Time — add three hours to convert to Eastern!
The first six and half minutes are a quick rundown of the methodology behind the prediction. Feel free to skip that if you want to get to the fun part.
As I mentioned [...]
Download: ElectionPrediction2008.mov
Here’s the presentation I gave this afternoon with my prediction for how election night will play out.
Briefly, the prediction is based on first projecting the vote share for McCain and Obama in each state, and then estimating how long it will be before the networks call a state by analyzing how long it took [...]
I’ve been pretty quiet since the presidential primaries ended.
I did start to do some analysis of the presidential race, and planned to use proper statistical analysis to predict the likely result based on current polling, but Nate Silver’s excellent analysis at fivethirtyeight.com really makes a lot of what I would have done redundant. I do [...]
Download: PresidentialPrimaries.xls
There’s been a lot of action in the Democratic presidential nomination race since I last posted, not least the rules committee meeting over the weekend that decided how Florida and Michigan’s delegates were allocated. Hillary Clinton picked up some extra delegates from that process, and also did better than expected in the Puerto [...]
Download: PresidentialPrimaries.xls
Although Barack Obama still has the Democratic nomination practically sewn up, today’s primaries aren’t looking as though they’ll shape up to provide him with the deluge of delegates he needs to push him past the winning post in our projections.
Kentucky
Clinton: 34 delegates (67% of vote)
Obama: 17 delegates (33% of vote)
Oregon
Clinton: 23 delegates (43% of [...]
Download: PresidentialPrimaries.xls
West Virginia’s result last night fell almost exactly in line with my projection, with one slight wrinkle. I hadn’t included John Edwards in the analysis, and his name appeared on the ballot. Along with other candidates, he took 7% of the vote, which pulled down Hillary Clinton’s actual share of the vote [...]
Download: PresidentialPrimaries.xls
Given that the Democratic nomination race is winding down, it’s ironic that Hillary Clinton is about to have her best day in the contest so far, in terms of dominating a primary and winning a big majority of the delegates. Here’s my prediction, based on recent opinion polls:
West Virginia
Clinton: 20 delegates (72% of [...]
Download: PresidentialPrimaries.xls
My predictions for the North Carolina and Indiana primaries on Tuesday proved to be pretty accurate. While Barack Obama did about 2% better in each state than predicted, the delegates broke slightly in Hillary Clinton’s favor. Obama’s win in North Carolina translated into a 65-50 delegate victory, a net gain of four over [...]
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