Bruce Nash explores the world of data modeling and information services
I just published our final predictions for tonight’s Oscars. As I mentioned in a previous post, these are based on votes in our annual Predict the Oscars competition. It’s the eleventh time we’ve run the competition, and our readers generally score about 70%.
So, if No Country for Old Men wins Best Picture tonight, and the [...]
Download: PresidentialPrimaries.xls (Excel spreadsheet)
I’ve updated current delegate totals based on CNN reports and the results of the Democrats Abroad vote, which gave Obama 2.5 delegates to Clinton’s 2. (And, no, I’ve no idea how someone who’s “half a delegate” votes at the convention.) There’s also new polling data for OH, TX and [...]
Download: PresidentialPrimaries.xls (Excel spreadsheet)
Yesterday was a very good day for Barack Obama. Not only did he do better than expected in the Wisconsin primary and Hawai’i caucus, but a new poll from Ohio has him closing the gap on Hillary Clinton in that state. Add to that a superdelegate switching sides in his favor (according [...]
Download: PresidentialPrimaries.xls (Excel spreadsheet)
Note: With Huckabee’s loss in Virginia and Romney’s endorsement of McCain last week, the Republican presidential primary race is basically finished, so, barring some unforeseen turnaround, I won’t be tracking the delegates for that contest any more.
We’re moving in the to end game in the Democratic race, and it looks as tight [...]
Download: PresidentialPrimaries.xls
Continuing my series of posts on the Presidential Primaries, here are my predictions for today’s races.
Democrats
DC: Obama 9, Clinton 4, “up for grabs” 2
Maryland: Obama 38, Clinton 24, “up for grabs” 8
Virginia: Obama 46, Clinton 31, “up for grabs” 6
Overall, it looks as though Obama will win the day about 101 delegates to 67, [...]
With all this talk of the Presidential Primaries, I’ve been neglecting another popularity contest that will be unfolding during February. I refer, of course, to the Academy Awards.
This is something I’ve been tracking for quite a while, using an online contest at The Numbers to produce predictions for the winners in each category. [...]
Here’s a quick rundown of what to look for in today’s Presidential Primary/Caucus votes.
On the Republican side, there are votes in three states: Kansas, Louisiana and Washington. My reading of the rules for the Washington caucus is that all the delegates will officially be unpledged, so I’m not sure that we’ll get any meaningful results [...]
I just discovered OpenStreetMap, which is a Wiki-based map of the world. One of the contributors has put together some nice animations of the growth of the project for the complete map and for Austria. There’s a really obvious network effect that kicked in around the middle of last year. Essentially the [...]
Download: SuperTuesday.xls (Excel Spreadsheet)
Although the final delegate counts are still up in the air, enough results are in to give a fairly accurate final breakdown for Super Tuesday.
To produce my final numbers, I’m taking the current vote shares and delegate counts reported by CNN. I’m not 100% certain of their methodology, but they seem [...]
I’m following the returns as they are reported and will have an update later today tomorrow on how the model fitted the final results. There are still a lot of delegates unassigned, according to the news services I’ve seen, so it’s hard to be sure exactly how good my projections were right now. [...]
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