Download: PresidentialPrimaries.xls

Although Barack Obama still has the Democratic nomination practically sewn up, today’s primaries aren’t looking as though they’ll shape up to provide him with the deluge of delegates he needs to push him past the winning post in our projections.
Kentucky
Clinton: 34 delegates (67% of vote)
Obama: 17 delegates (33% of vote)
Oregon
Clinton: 23 delegates (43% of [...]

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Download: PresidentialPrimaries.xls

West Virginia’s result last night fell almost exactly in line with my projection, with one slight wrinkle. I hadn’t included John Edwards in the analysis, and his name appeared on the ballot. Along with other candidates, he took 7% of the vote, which pulled down Hillary Clinton’s actual share of the vote [...]

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Download: PresidentialPrimaries.xls

Given that the Democratic nomination race is winding down, it’s ironic that Hillary Clinton is about to have her best day in the contest so far, in terms of dominating a primary and winning a big majority of the delegates. Here’s my prediction, based on recent opinion polls:
West Virginia
Clinton: 20 delegates (72% of [...]

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Download: PresidentialPrimaries.xls

My predictions for the North Carolina and Indiana primaries on Tuesday proved to be pretty accurate. While Barack Obama did about 2% better in each state than predicted, the delegates broke slightly in Hillary Clinton’s favor. Obama’s win in North Carolina translated into a 65-50 delegate victory, a net gain of four over [...]

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Download: PresidentialPrimaries.xls (Excel spreadsheet)

Today sees the last of the big primaries in the Democractic presidential nomination race: Indiana and North Carolina. Right now, the momentum in the race is with Senator Clinton, who has gained 9 extra pledged delegates in our prediction since the Pennsylvania primary thanks to better scores in the opinion polls [...]

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