Bruce Nash explores the world of data modeling and information services
Here’s my prediction for election night with audio commentary.
Note that all times are Pacific Time — add three hours to convert to Eastern!
The first six and half minutes are a quick rundown of the methodology behind the prediction. Feel free to skip that if you want to get to the fun part.
As I mentioned [...]
Download: ElectionPrediction2008.mov
Here’s the presentation I gave this afternoon with my prediction for how election night will play out.
Briefly, the prediction is based on first projecting the vote share for McCain and Obama in each state, and then estimating how long it will be before the networks call a state by analyzing how long it took [...]
I’ve been pretty quiet since the presidential primaries ended.
I did start to do some analysis of the presidential race, and planned to use proper statistical analysis to predict the likely result based on current polling, but Nate Silver’s excellent analysis at fivethirtyeight.com really makes a lot of what I would have done redundant. I do [...]
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