I’ve been pretty quiet since the presidential primaries ended.

I did start to do some analysis of the presidential race, and planned to use proper statistical analysis to predict the likely result based on current polling, but Nate Silver’s excellent analysis at fivethirtyeight.com really makes a lot of what I would have done redundant.  I do have my doubts about some of the parts of fivethirtyeight’s model, but overall I think it’s an excellent snapshot of where the race stands.

That said, I couldn’t resist constructing my own analysis of the election.  I’m honored to have been invited to speak on a panel about the election at the University of Southern California on Thursday, so I’ll be presenting my predictions there, and posting them here on the blog on Thursday evening.  Based on what I’ve constructed so far, it looks as though things could still get quite interesting on election night…