Download: ElectionPrediction2008.mov

Here’s the presentation I gave this afternoon with my prediction for how election night will play out.

Briefly, the prediction is based on first projecting the vote share for McCain and Obama in each state, and then estimating how long it will be before the networks call a state by analyzing how long it took CNN to call each state in 2004.  There are a few slides at the beginning that give an overview of the methodology, and then the fun starts, with a blow-by-blow account of how election night might play out.

Once the presentation has loaded, you can click on each slide to move forward, or use the arrow keys on your keyboard.  (For some reason the first two slides cycle repeatedly while the file is loading, so you might have to wait for a few seconds before you can start clicking through.)  There’s no audio right now, but the video from the event at USC will be posted online soon, and I’ll post a link once it’s up.

Thanks to Daily Kos for providing the electoral prediction map that I used in the presentation.  My use of it should not be construed as an endorsement of Daily Kos itself… but they do have a great interactive election map.