X-Men 3: The Last Stand Box Office Analysis

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X-Men: The Last Stand looks to be the biggest hit of the month, possibly of the summer. It is also the last film in a very successful trilogy. But even with a great release date and a proven track record, there are some interesting notes and obstacles to talk about.

Super Heroes, Super Box Office

Ahhh, the Super Hero movie. There was a time when it looked like a dying genre, or to be more specific, it looked like Batman & Robin killed the genre. But X-Men helped restore some confidence, and since Spider-Man exploded on the scene, there hasn't been a year without a least a handful of skintight-suit-clad men and women swinging through the skies. There have been a couple of signs of weakness lately, Catwoman and Elektra springing most readily to mind, but for now, the genre remains one of the surest bets in the industry.

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Memorial Day Winners

The Memorial Day long weekend is the busiest weekend of the year. However, surprisingly there have been very few $200 million movies that opened this weekend. In fact, for three of the last five Memorial Day weekends, the film that finished in first place actually opened the weekend before. Only Pearly Harbor and Bruce Almighty in the chart below opened on Memorial Day weekend itself.

But a first place finish on Memorial Day isn't necessarily a prerequisite to box office success. Both Madagascar and The Day After Tomorrow started in second place over Memorial Day weekend and finished near $200 million.

On a side note, the biggest Memorial Day opening ever was The Lost World: Jurassic Park with $72.1 million over the three-day weekend and $90.2 million over four. That record has a good chance of falling this year.

Blockbuster Trilogies

As the third film in a trilogy, X-Men: The Last Stand joins a long list of other successful (and not so successful) franchises.

There are basically four types of trilogies. The first three might be described as: "The Law of Diminishing Returns", where each film earns less than the one before it (e.g. Back to the Future); "The Bounce Back", where the second film disappoints only to have the third recover (e.g. either Star Wars trilogy); and "One Film Too Many", where the final film collapses after first two were solid hits (e.g. The Matrix). The final, and rarest of trilogies, is "Strong and Steady", where each film outperforms the previous installment. The Lord of the Rings is the prime recent example of this phenomenon. Since X2 topped X-Men, this franchise is in the running for either a One Film Too Many or a Strong and Steady title. The studio and fans alike are hoping for the latter one, and the early tracking suggests this is likely to be the case.

Changing Directors

One of the more interesting aspects to X-Men: The Last Stand is the fact that they are changing directors for the third film. Bryan Singer left the project to direct the oft-delayed Superman Returns. Taking over the directorial duties is Brett Ratner, which has some fans very concerned.

As you can see in the tables below, both directors have a similar track record when it comes to average box office. However, critically Bryan Singer tops Brett Ratner by a considerable margin. This is the big concern for fans, but as long as he understands that he's there to direct the final chapter in the X-Men franchise and not try and make it his own, he should do okay. In fact, while I do expect a drop-off in critical appeal, this should become Brett Ratner's best movie of his career so far.

Bryan Singer's Box Office History
Released	Movie Name	1st weekend	Total Gross
2009	Superman Returns Sequel		Unknown
2006	Superman Returns		Unknown
5/2/2003	X2	$85,558,731	$214,948,780
7/14/2000	X-Men	$54,471,475	$157,299,717
10/23/1998	Apt Pupil	$3,583,151	$8,863,193
8/16/1995	The Usual Suspects	$645,363	$23,341,568
		Total Grosses	$404,453,258
		Average Gross	$101,113,315
	Average Opening Weekend	$36,064,680

Brett Ratner's Box Office History
Released	Movie Name	1st weekend	Total Gross
2007	Rush Hour 3		Unknown
2006	X-Men 3: The Last Stand		Unknown
2006	Josiah's Canon		Unknown
11/12/2004	After the Sunset	$11,100,392	$28,328,132
10/4/2002	Red Dragon	$36,540,945	$92,955,420
8/3/2001	Rush Hour 2	$67,408,222	$226,138,454
12/22/2000	The Family Man	$15,104,055	$75,764,085
9/18/1998	Rush Hour	$33,001,803	$141,186,864
8/22/1997	Money Talks	$10,654,369	$41,076,865
		Total Grosses	$605,449,820
		Average Gross	$100,908,303
	Average Opening Weekend	$28,968,298

The Return of the New Box Office King?

There's one last noteworthy topic, and that's Ian McKellen. Truth be told, when it comes to X-Men, it isn't the actors that are drawing people into the theatres. If you take a look at the Combined Gross for X-Men 3, it's pretty far down the list considering the number of actors in the film. In fact, several of the actors in the film have earned most of their career box office from the previous two movies. However, of all the stars of this film, it is Ian McKellen that has had the most box office success, especially recently. He is currently in 7th place on the Top 100 Stars of the 2000s and has two potential $200 million movies coming out this month (X-Men: The Last Stand and The Da Vinci Code) and later in the year he provides the voice for Toad in Flushed Away, which could also top $200 million. That means he should take the lead for Highest Grossing Star of the 2000s, at least momentarily, and could become the first actor whose movies earn $2 billion this decade. The only real obstacle to that is his Lord of the Rings co-star, Orlando Bloom, who could get there first if Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest beats expectations.

Ian McKellan's Box Office History
Released	Movie Name	Role	1st weekend	US Gross	Worldwide Gross
2006	Neverwas	Gabriel Finch		Announced
11/3/2006	Flushed Away			Confirmed
5/26/2006	X-Men 3: The Last Stand	Erik Lensherr, AKA Magneto		Confirmed
5/19/2006	The Da Vinci Code	Sir Leigh Teabing		Confirmed
2/24/2006	Doogal	Zebedee (US release)	$3,605,899	$7,575,628	$26,259,658
8/12/2005	Asylum	Peter Cleave	$36,272	$374,903	$547,307
2/4/2005	Emile	Emile	$1,529	$4,626	$4,626
12/17/2003	The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King	Gandalf	$72,629,713	$377,027,325	$1,129,027,325
5/2/2003	X2	Magneto	$85,558,731	$214,948,780	$406,399,599
12/18/2002	The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers	Gandalf the White	$62,007,528	$341,784,377	$924,291,552
12/19/2001	The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring	Gandalf the Grey	$47,211,490	$313,837,577	$867,683,093
7/14/2000	X-Men	Erik Magnus Lehnsherr/Magneto	$54,471,475	$157,299,717	$295,999,717
5/5/2000	Cirque du Soleil - Journey of Man	Narrator	$49,837	$15,626,076	$27,751,781
11/6/1998	Gods and Monsters	James Whale	$75,508	$6,451,628	$6,451,628
10/23/1998	Apt Pupil	Kurt Dussander	$3,583,151	$8,863,193	$8,863,193
1/23/1998	Swept From The Sea	Dr. James Kennedy	$163,289	$283,081	$283,081
11/26/1997	Bent	Uncle Freddie	$109,243	$372,341	$372,341
5/10/1996	Cold Comfort Farm	Amos Starkadder	$66,427	$5,682,429	$5,682,429
3/22/1996	Jack and Sarah	William		$218,626	$218,626
12/29/1995	Restoration	Will Gates	$75,514	$4,100,000	$4,100,000
12/29/1995	Richard III	Richard III	$91,915	$2,600,000	$2,600,000
7/1/1994	The Shadow	Dr. Reinhardt Lane	$11,713,845	$31,835,600	$31,835,600
2/4/1994	I'll Do Anything	John Earl McAlpine	$4,702,625	$10,209,111	$10,209,111
12/8/1993	Six Degrees of Separation	Geoffrey	$53,058	$6,284,090	$6,284,090
8/20/1993	The Ballad of Little Jo	Percy Corcoran		$514,451	$514,451
6/18/1993	Last Action Hero	Death	$15,338,241	$50,016,394	$137,298,489
4/28/1989	Scandal	John Profumo		$8,800,000	$8,800,000
9/19/1985	Plenty	Sir Andrew Charleson	$436,266	$6,104,212	$6,104,212
12/16/1983	The Keep	Dr. Theodore Cuza	$1,032,295	$3,661,757	$3,661,757
		Total Grosses		$1,574,475,922	$3,911,243,666
		Average Gross		$62,979,037
	Average Opening Weekend		$16,500,630

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