This graph shows Gerard Butler’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
It’s a very solid weekend for moviegoers as not only are there five new wide releases arriving in cinemas, but films like Fast X and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 are still pulling in respectable numbers and are available in around 4,000 locations. Despite being the second-widest release in its big screen debut last weekend, the former sped away with the best numbers at the box office, scoring just over $67 million over the weekend and currently enjoying a six-day domestic total of $81.9 million. This weekend though, all eyes are on The Little Mermaid.
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Avatar: The Way of Water will get competition from no less than five films that can claim to be opening or expanding wide this weekend. The most serious threat to its box office dominance comes from Plane, an action thriller starring Gerard Butler and Mike Colter. But in many ways Avatar is continuing to compete against its predecessor for box office history. This looks like another weekend that it will win with ease against more mortal competition.
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When a pair of down on their luck house cleaners discover they’re assigned to clean the mansion of Lebron James while he’s overseas, they decide to make a life-changing decision to throw a giant party in a quest for immortality and some cash. As the party gets out of control and one of Lebron’s championship rings goes missing, they will be launched into a wild night that they will never forget.
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Pilot Brodie Torrance saves his passengers from a lightning strike by making a risky landing on a war-torn island—only to find that surviving the landing was just the beginning. When most of the passengers are taken hostage by dangerous rebels, the only person Torrance can count on for help is Louis Gaspare, an accused murderer who was being transported by the FBI. In order to rescue the passengers, Torrance will need Gaspare’s help, and will learn there’s more to Gaspare than meets the eye.
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After making its North American debut on December 16th, Avatar: The Way of Water has amassed a staggering $465 million from a steady 4,202 locations. Internationally, the James Cameron juggernaut has performed even better, scoring $1.05 billion since its release, already eclipsing the $769 million that Top Gun: Maverick earned during its seven-month run. Way of Water actually adds 138 viewing locations this week, making it once again this week’s widest release, playing in 4,340 venues. We will at least have one brand new wide release this week to give it some competition.
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One of this weekend’s two new wide releases will have to do much, much better than expected to challenge Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings at the top of the chart this weekend. The Marvel movie should come in with something around $20 million (or possibly a bit higher), and there’s a strong possibility that will be more than double the second-placed film. If Cry Macho and CopShop both falter, Shang-Chi might even earn three or four times as much as its nearest competition.
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After two weeks on top of the theater count list, and more importantly dominating both the domestic and international box office, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings drops from 4,300 to 4,070 locations to begin its third week. The latest Marvel film has collected a stellar $152 million domestically in its first 13 days of release. Providing stiff competition this week is the latest feature from Warner Bros. in Cry Macho. The neo-Western drama starring and directed by screen legend Clint Eastwood follows a former Texas rodeo star who is hired by his former boss to retrieve his son from Mexico. Cry Macho is estimated to arrive in 3,900 theaters. Also opening wide this week is the action/thriller CopShop, starring Gerard Butler and Frank Grillo. The movie from Open Road Films is set to debut in 3,005 locations.
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We finally had some wide releases in August, and things went well, relatively speaking. Antebellum was pulled from the schedule at the last minute, leaving Unhinged as the only semi-wide release for the weekend of August 21, and that helped it open better than anticipated with $4 million. Then The New Mutants had the best opening since the pandemic first caused theaters to close, with $7 million last weekend.
That record won’t last long as Tenet is now playing in US theaters, officially as an “Early Access” release on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, then “In Theaters” (which seems to be basically the same thing, only more so) from Thursday. It should outpace The New Mutants’ running tally, and maybe as early as its opening day. Not only will it have the biggest opening in months, it should stay in first place for the entire month, mainly due to a lack of competition. Three other films are getting wide releases, and each on their own weekend, so there’s no competition between them; however, that’s the end of the good news as the buzz for all three films is quiet. In fact, the buzz for Antebellum is in some ways louder, and that will be going direct to Apple TV on September 18.
Here’s the complete rundown of major movies coming to theaters this month.
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A family fights for survival as a planet-killing comet races to Earth. John Garrity, his estranged wife Allison, and young son Nathan make a perilous journey to their only hope for sanctuary. Amid terrifying news accounts of cities around the world being leveled by the comet’s fragments, the Garrity’s experience the best and worst in humanity while they battle the increasing panic and lawlessness surrounding them. As the countdown to global apocalypse approaches zero, their incredible trek culminates in a desperate and last-minute flight to a possible safe haven.
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Secret Service Agent Mike Banning is framed for the attempted assassination of the President and must evade his own agency and the FBI as he tries to uncover the real threat.
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September turned out to be a solid month. The Nun beat expectations to become a $100 million hit, while there were also several midlevel hits in the mix. Granted, it lost ground when compared to last September, but last September broke records, and this September held on better than expected. Hopefully this means October will be able to continue 2018’s winning ways. There are several potential $100 million hits, starting with Venom and A Star is Born, which open the first weekend. Meanwhile, both First Man and Halloween could break the century mark later in the month. By comparison, last October, no movie topped $100 million, with Blade Runner 2049 coming the closest. 2018 should extend its lead over 2017 during the full month, potentially by a significant margin.
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2017 wasn’t a good year. It started out well and ended on a high note, but the summer was a disaster and that proved to be too much for the rest of the year to overcome. Fortunately, The Last Jedi and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle are still doing very well and will help January get off to a fast start. Unfortunately, the biggest new release of January is Paddington 2 and it isn’t expected to match its predecessor at the box office; it certainly won’t top $100 million domestically. It is unlikely any of the Oscar contenders will hit the century mark in January either. This is really bad news, as last January, we had a new release, Split and an Oscar contender, Hidden Figures, which both topped that milestone with ease. 2018 should get off to a faster start in the first two weeks, but overall, this month will end with a loss.
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September destroyed the previous September monthly record for total box office take, with $800 million or so (we won’t know the exact figure until after the weekend), which tops 2016’s record of $616 million. Granted, this is almost entirely due to It’s record breaking run, and the rest of the month was merely average. Kingsman: The Golden Circle was the only other film to come close to $100 million. October doesn’t look any better, as far as depth is concerned. Blade Runner 2049 is widely expected to be the biggest hit of the month, but it is the only film expected to reach $100 million domestically. Boo 2 should be the second biggest hit of the month, while there are only a couple of other films that have a shot at $50 million. Part of the problem is the level of competition, as there are 16 films opening during the four October weekends. (Needless to say, some of the predictions below will be a little short, as there’s not much to say about a film that will barely open in the top ten and disappear two weeks later.) That’s way too many and most will be buried by the competition. Last October was a flop, as no film earned more than $100 million at the box office. There were a few films that came close, including the original Boo! movie. As long as Blade Runner 2049 matches expectations, 2017 should win the year-over-year comparison by a small margin. If we get one surprise hit, then 2017 has a real shot at closing the gap with 2016 by a significant margin. I choose to be cautiously optimistic.
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It's March 1st, which is not only the beginning of the month, but also Super Tuesday. If you are not American and don't pay attention to American politics, Super Tuesday is sort of like the Oscar night of the primary season. I was going to write about my predictions, but it looks like the race is about to be over. On the Republicans side, if Trump gets more than 50% of the delegates, then he has won. It will be too late to stop him. If he gets less than 40%, then it becomes a real race again. If the polling is correct, then he will get closer to 50% than 40%. On the Democratic side, Sanders needs at least 45% of the delegates, or it is over for him. Anything less than that and Hillary Clinton will have too big a lead to overcome. If the South Carolina result is an indicator, Hillary Clinton could get two-thirds of the delegates awarded tonight.
As for the box office, February was amazing, thanks to Deadpool's record-breaking opening and better than expected legs. The month ended with 2016 being nearly 4% higher than 2015's pace. Additionally, there are some big releases coming out this month with both Zootopia and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice looking to get more than $200 million, while Allegiant should hit $100 million. Last March, there were also three films that earned more than $100 million, but only one $200 million hit, Cinderella. It should be a really close race between 2016 and 2015.
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It is too soon to tell how May will end, as this story will be published before the weekend estimates came out. (Maleficent had an excellent start on Friday, unlike A Million Ways to Die in the West.) Overall, it was a good month with at least three movies that are on track to hit $200 million, but there was no really big winner for the month. It was nice and balanced. Unfortunately, last May there was a monster hit, Iron Man 3, and 2014 could not compete with that, so it lost ground to 2013. June hopes to turn things around and there are some reasons to be optimistic. All four weeks there is at least one film opening that at least has a shot at $100 million. There are even two films that at least have a shot at $300 million. Transformers: Age of Extinction should win the monthly box office race while How to Train Your Dragon 2 is a long shot to win, but I wouldn't be completely surprised if it did. Additionally, 22 Jump Street, Edge of Tomorrow, The Fault in Our Stars, and Think Like a Man 2 are all contenders for the century club. Not all of them will get to that milestone, but all of them at least have a short. Last June, there were three films that reached $200 million, including Man of Steel, which nearly reached $300 million. It looks like June of 2014 will be about as strong as June of 2013, more or less. If all films reach their potential, it could win the year-over-year comparison. Unless there are some shocking bombs, it shouldn't struggle so much that 2014 loses its lead over 2013 entirely.
Movie 43 earned some of the worst reviews of the year so far, with many critics calling it the worst movie they've ever seen. When I got the chance to review the movie, I jumped at it. I had to know if it was really as bad as its reviews. It couldn't possible be, right?
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This is one of those weekends where it is really hard to get excited about the box office. That's not to say there's nothing opening that isn't either earning good reviews or has a solid shot at the box office, there are. However, this weekend last year is the weekend The Hunger Games debuted. No film opening this weekend will compete with that. The entire box office this year won't make as much as that one film made last year. 2013 is going to be crushed in the year-over-year comparison and it could be more than a little depressing. As for this year, The Croods should walk away with the number one ranking and might even make more than twice as much as the number two film, which will probably be Olympus Has Fallen. The last new release of the week is Admission, but it might not make the top five. In fact, Spring Breakers is expanding to a little more than 1,000 theaters, but still has a better shot at the top five than Admission has.
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February is over, and for the most part, we should be very happy it is done and buried. The biggest hit of the month turned out to be Identity Thief, which will cross $100 million shortly. There were also a couple of impressive midlevel hits, like Warm Bodies and Escape from Planet Earth, but for the most part, it was miss after miss. This is bad news for March, which is not only dealing with a slumping 2013 box office, but will be compared with a strong March of 2012. Last March started with The Lorax, which earned more than $200 million. There's a good chance no March release this year will reach this milestone. Last March was also the month The Hunger Games opened, which earned more than $400 million. There's a chance the top three films opening this month won't earn that much combined. 2013 is going to take a beating in the year-over-year comparison and it is already $100 million behind last year's pace.
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November was a strong month and left 2012 with a very easy path to a new all time record. There was only one major miss the entire month, Rise of the Guardians, while The Silver Linings Playbook was pulled from wide release at the last minute, so it is a little hard to judge its box office performance. On the positive side, Skyfall might top original expectations by $100 million. All this December has to do is maintain pace with last December to ensure 2012 sets the new record. I would like to say that will be easy to do, but I really don't know. Last year, there was only one $200 million hit, Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol, plus a few others that reached $100 million, so the bar isn't set too high. This year, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey is expected to at least come close to $300 million. Some think it will earn more than $400 million. However, it could also be the last film to make $100 million till February. December is normally a very good month to release a film, but the release schedule is so messed up that it makes it very hard to predict what will happen. There appears to be just ten films opening truly wide this month (I'm getting mixed signals on a few of them). That's a really light schedule for a month and a light schedule tends to help maximize the box office potential for individual films. However, eight of these films open wide within a seven-day period. That's insane. There's no way all of those films will find an audience and there's a chance that due to the competition, none of them will. Let's hope the situation isn't as bad as that, but there are some serious reasons to be concerned for most new releases coming out this month.
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2012 continues its downward path. After a record-breaking spring, thanks to The Hunger Games, and a record-breaking start to the summer, thanks to The Avengers, the box office hasn't been able to maintain any real momentum. For most of the month, September was no better than August and now the year-over-year gains are just a little more than inflation. October will need to improve or 2012 will be in real trouble. Unfortunately, that might be tough. There's not a single film coming out in October that looks like it will be a guaranteed $100 million hit and there are only two films with a realistic chance, Taken 2 and Paranormal Activity 4. (There's also Cloud Atlas, which is a wild card. That movie could bomb or be the biggest hit of the month and I wouldn't be surprised either way.) There is a chance all three will get to the century mark, but there's a better chance none of them will. Last October, two films cracked $100 million: Paranormal Activity 3 and Puss in Boots, with the latter nearly reaching $150 million. I don't see any film coming close to matching that figure. On the other hand, last year there were six films that one could accurately describe as bombs. So while 2012 is weaker at the top, it could have better depth than 2011 did. Let's hope so, because we can't afford more bad news.
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