Will November Start Mega-Sized?
November 4, 2010
November could start on a high note with three wide releases poised to open one-two-three. If all three films only manage to reach just the midpoint of expectations, then the month will start with a big win year-over-year, as last year three of the four new releases struggled. If they reach the high end of expectations, then the top three films this week will earn more than the top ten films did last year. Even low end expectations has this year's likely number one film, MegaMind, topping last year's number one film, A Christmas Carol. The only bad news is the lack of depth, as none of the holdovers are poised to do much business. They are either pump and dumps, or have been in theaters so long that they are no longer a real factor.
MegaMind is the third digitally animated film released by Dreamworks this year, and so far they are two for two. They should extend that winning streak to three this weekend, at least at the box office. So far nearly all analysts are predicting MegaMind will win the box office race by quite a margin, even though its reviews are only mixed. Granted, 50% positive is better than most wide releases, and even some of the negative reviews say it is entertaining for kids, but it won't draw in nearly as many adult aficionados of computer animation as Toy Story 3 did. On the high end it could still reach $60 million, while even on the low end it should earn $40 million. I'm going with $52 million, which is a little more bullish than most analysts, but not off in crazy town.
At the beginning of the month, and by that I mean Monday, I was expecting Due Date to open with close to $40 million and cruise to $125 million on better than average legs. However, reviews went from excellent to barely average very quickly. Any further erosion in its Tomatometer Score and it could negatively impact its opening. As it is, the star power should help it earn over $35 million during its opening weekend, but its legs will likely be short enough to miss $100 million.
For Colored Girls is the final wide release of the week and it seems locked into third place. That would make it the first Tyler Perry film to not open in first or second place since Daddy's Little Girls. On the one hand, that was only three years ago. On the other hand, he's made six movies since then. (The guy makes Clint Eastwood seem like a slacker.) For Colored Girls was Tyler Perry's chance to break out critically, as he was directing an adaptation of the award-winning play by Ntozake Shange; however, at the moment its reviews are closer to the bottom of his filmography than the top. That shouldn't really adversely affect its box office potential, as he is practically critic-proof at this point. Look for an opening per theater average of just over $10,000, which would give it an opening of $24 million, more or less.
Saw VII 3D will fall from first to fourth with just over $8 million over the weekend and just under $40 million after two. It has already made more than Saw VI finished with, but it will likely finish its run as the second weakest installment in the franchise.
Paranormal Activity 2 will round out the top five with just under $7 million over the weekend for a total of $77 million after three. In the end, it will see a sizable drop-off from its predecessor, but it might already have enough money to show a profit. It depends on how much the studio spent to advertise it.
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Due Date, Paranormal Activity 2, Saw 3D, For Colored Girls, Megamind