November 27th, 2019
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It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This year, Thanksgiving is as late as it could have been, which means there’s no way to squeeze in four weeks of regular installments of the gift guide, as well as the December monthly preview, etc. So we are going to have a condensed list this year. That said, there weren’t a ton of first-run releases that would have made this list regardless.
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November 14th, 2019
There are not many new releases on this week’s list, but there are several that are contenders for Pick of the Week. The two leading contenders are The Farewell and Star Trek: Discovery: Season Two. The former is the better show, but it is close, meanwhile, the latter has much better extras, giving it the slight advantage overall. On a side note, Yesterday Was a Lie was also in the competition for Pick of the Week. It didn’t quite win, but its Blu-ray deserves to be seen by a lot more people.
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October 30th, 2019
It’s a weird week on the home market, as there is not a big new wide release to talk about. However, there are several older releases, imports, etc. that are easily worth picking up and a couple of them are contenders for Pick of the Week. This includes the An American Werewolf in London: Limited Edition Blu-ray and the Godzilla The Showa-Era Films Box Set. Both are absolute must haves, but the latter’s price-tag might scare away some folks.
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September 17th, 2019
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It: Chapter Two and Hustlers both topped expectations by large margins over the weekend and that helped the overall box office earn $110 million. Granted, this is 20% lower than last weekend; however, this was also 2.2% higher than the same weekend last year and that is by far the more important detail. 2019 is still behind 2018, but the gap closed by a little bit and is now at 5.9% or $500 million at $7.98 billion to $8.48 billion. Fortunately, the international box office is doing better and overall 2019 is merely mediocre and it still has time to improve.
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September 15th, 2019
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It is shaping up to be a great weekend at the box office with both Hustlers and It: Chapter Two topping expectations. It: Chapter Two is going to repeat on top, with an estimated sophomore stint of $40.74 million for a running tally of $153.80 million. This represents a 55% decline, which is certainly fantastic for a horror sequel. It still likely means $250 million domestically is out of the question, but even $200 million is amazing for a movie that cost less than $70 million to make. Internationally, the film pulled in another $47 million in 78 markets for a two-week total of $169.5 million. It has already made over $300 million worldwide, which might be enough to break even, depending on its advertising budget and exact share of the box office. If not, it will break even very shortly.
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September 14th, 2019
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Hustlers did surprisingly well to earn first place on Friday with an estimated $13.1 million. This puts it on pace for $32 million over the full weekend, which is more than enough for the biggest opening in STX Entertainment’s history and the biggest live-action opening in Jennifer Lopez’s career. It is not that far behind Crazy Rich Asians’ five-day opening and will also be Constance Wu’s best opening. There’s more good news: The film’s reviews are the best in the top ten at 87% positive and STX Entertainment has tended to have a lot of success giving their films long legs. The Bad Moms franchise is evidence of that. On the downside, the movie only managed a B minus from CinemaScore, but it is a dark comedy and those can be divisive. Additionally, while it earned first place on Friday, it won’t stay there for long.
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September 12th, 2019
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There are only two wide releases this weekend, Hustlers and The Goldfinch. The buzz surrounding Hustlers has grown at the perfect time, but it has a non-zero chance of topping It: Chapter Two for top spot on the weekend box office chart. On the other hand, The Goldfinch is seen as busted Oscar-bait and will only open in the top five due to extremely weak competition. This weekend last year, The Predator earned first place with close to $25 million, while the other two wide releases earned about that combined. This means last year’s three new releases will be more potent than this year’s two new releases, but I think 2019 will earn a comfortable win, in part thanks to this year’s much better depth.
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September 10th, 2019
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It: Chapter Two dominated the box office by almost as large a margin as expected. It certainly did well enough that I’m considering it a victory. It earned $91.06 million over the weekend, which is almost exactly what the total box office made last weekend. More importantly, it is almost as much as the top five made this weekend last year, giving the weekend box office a massive increase of 48% from last weekend to $136 million and more importantly, this was 12% more than the same weekend last year. 2019 is still behind 2018 by a massive margin of $500 million or 6.0% at $7.83 billion to $8.33 billion. However, we did catch up to 2017’s ticket sales pace, so as long as we can maintain this pace for the rest of the year, it won’t look like a disaster at the end of the year.
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September 8th, 2019
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It: Chapter Two is missing expectations with an estimated opening weekend of $91.0 million. However, while this is 10% lower than predicted, it is still more than enough to earn second place on the September chart. In fact, it is nearly 70% higher than the third biggest September debut of all time, The Nun, which opened this weekend last year. That’s really going to help the year-over-year comparison. As for the film’s long-range chances, they are mixed. Horror movies rarely have long legs and this is also true of sequels, so horror sequels almost never do well long-term. Additionally, this film’s reviews are much weaker than the first film’s reviews, but on the positive side, it did match its predecessor when it came to the CinemaScore, as both earned B plus ratings.
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September 7th, 2019
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It: Chapter Two isn’t living up to predictions or its predecessor, but it is still on pace to become one of the best September debuts of all time. The film pulled in $37.4 million on Friday, putting it on pace for just over $90 million over the full weekend. It is going to have shorter legs that the original had, thanks in part to the Sequel Effect, but also due to its weaker reviews. On the positive side, it matched the original’s B plus from CinemaScore, so that’s a good sign.
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September 5th, 2019
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It’s going to be a short prediction column, because there’s not much to talk about. It: Chapter Two is the only wide release of the week and there weren’t even any wide releases last weekend to give It any real competition. In fact, two of the likely top five films have already been in theaters for more than a month. last year, The Nun led the way with $53.81 million. It: Chapter Two could double that during its opening weekend.
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September 4th, 2019
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There were no new wide releases this past weekend and unfortunately, the holdovers weren’t able to take advantage. Angel Has Fallen remained on top, but it did so with only $11.80 million over the three-day weekend. This wasn’t enough to match expectations or last year’s number one film, Crazy Rich Asians. The overall box office fell 18% from last weekend, falling to $89 million. Worse still, this is 10% lower than this weekend last year, putting 2019 behind 2018 by a 6.2% or $510 million at $7.64 billion to $8.15 billion. On the positive note, this is likely the low point of the year and the Fall looks a lot stronger, starting with It: Chapter Two this coming weekend.
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September 1st, 2019
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There were no wide releases this weekend, so I really thought the holdovers would hold on a lot better than they did. According to estimates, Angel Has Fallen has fallen 46% during its second weekend of release to $11.58 million and is projected to earn $15 million over the four-day weekend. A 46% sophomore stint decline would have been great, if this weren’t a holiday weekend. As it is, it’s a little disappointing, but the film will still do well enough to earn a profit. ... “Profitable disappointment.” How many times can that phrase be used this year?
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August 31st, 2019
There were no new wide releases on Friday, and sadly the holdovers didn’t thrive as a result. It’s going to be a brutal weekend at the box office. Angel Has Fallen topped the chart on Friday, but wasn’t able to match expectations with $2.9 million. That said, it is still on pace for $15 million over the full four-day weekend for a two-week total of $44 million, which is a good result for this time of year.
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August 29th, 2019
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It’s the final weekend of the summer, Labor Day weekend. Officially it is the final weekend of the summer, but if you’ve been paying attention to the box office, then you know summer really ended with the release of Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw weeks ago. This long weekend, movie studios have just given up and there are no wide, or even semi-wide releases to talk about. This means the top five will look about the same as it did last weekend with Angel Has Fallen on top, while some of the holdovers, specifically Good Boys and The Lion King, should take advantage of the lack of competition. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, Crazy Rich Asians remained the top film at the box office and will likely beat any of this week’s offerings. In fact, none of the films playing this year will earn as much over four days as Crazy Rich Asians did over three.
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August 27th, 2019
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Angel Has Fallen led the way at the weekend with $21.38 million. There were some other pleasant surprises in the top ten and this helped the overall box office to a surprise win. It was down 9.6% from last weekend to $108 million; however, this was 5.6% higher than the same weekend last year and we haven’t had many reasons to celebrate in the year-over-year competition, so let’s focus on that. Year-to-date, 2019 is still behind 2018 and is so by nearly identical margins as last weekend at 6.3% or $500 million. This is still a deep hole to try and climb out of, especially since there are only four months left in the year, and I will be happy if we can just cut that gap in half by the end of the year.
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August 25th, 2019
There is some good news to talk about and that’s been depressingly rare this year. Angel Has Fallen is beating expectations with an estimated opening of $21.25 million. This opening is just behind London Has Fallen’s debut. Additionally, Angel has better reviews and matched the previous film’s A minus from CinemaScore, so it should have similar legs. It is too soon to tell how it will do internationally, but given the franchise’s performance so far, I remain optimistic.
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August 24th, 2019
Angel Has Fallen earned an estimated $7.9 million on Friday. Amazingly, this is an improvement over the $7.51 million earned by London has Fallen during its opening day. Most people, myself included, assumed this film would suffer a deep decline. This film also earned better reviews, while both films earned an A minus from CinemaScore. On the other hand, the film did earn less during the 24-hour Friday period, so that suggests a slightly smaller opening weekend. Even so, it will beat our prediction with just over $21 million.
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August 22nd, 2019
There are three wide releases this week, but only one of them, Angel Has Fallen, is widely expected to do anything at the box office. Overcomer is a faith-based film and those are a risk at the box office, but the people behind this one do have a good track record. Finally there’s Ready or Not, the widest ever release for Fox Searchlight and its reviews are easily the best of the week, but the buzz suggests that won’t be enough to thrive. This weekend last year, Crazy Rich Asians dipped just 6% earning just over $24 million. No film is going to match that figure this week. There’s a chance all three wide releases won’t match that figure this week, combined.
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August 20th, 2019
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It’s the dog days of summer and Good Boys was the only new release with an impressive debut of $21.40 million, while The Angry Birds Movie 2’s $16.09 million six-day debut isn’t a bad start for this time of year. There were a few holdovers to earn more than $10 million over the weekend, so the overall box office wasn’t a disaster, just a disappointment down 9.5% from last weekend to $119 million. More importantly, this is 7.7% lower the the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2019 has pulled in $7.35 billion, but this is 6.3% or $490 million behind last year’s pace. At this point, I don’t think it is possible for 2019 to catch up, but hopefully it can put together a strong last few months to at least save face. Additionally, the international box office is doing better, so worldwide it is close to a wash.
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August 18th, 2019
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Good Boys and Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw are topping the weekend box office chart, so while the overall box office isn’t doing well, Universal is having a great weekend. Good Boys is leading the way with $21.0 million, which is not only better than our predictions, but better than Universal’s projections based on Friday’s estimates. It’s not all rosy, as the film’s reviews and its B plus from CinemaScore don’t suggest really long legs, while this is not the type of film to do well internationally. In fact, it is only pulling in $2.1 million during its opening weekend overseas, including $1.0 million in the U.K.
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August 17th, 2019
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Good Boys earned first place on the Friday chart with $8.31 million. Universal is projecting a $20.8 million opening weekend based on this start, which would give the film a rather low internal multiplier. This is due to its reviews and its mere B plus from CinemaScore, neither of which are bad, but they are not great either. It would still be the fastest opening for a comedy all year and this is the first R-rated comedy to top the chart since The Boss debuted more than three years ago. On the one hand, this is great news for Good Boys. On the other hand, what the hell happened to the genre? R-rated comedies used to regularly earn $100 million or more at the box office.
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August 16th, 2019
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We have preview numbers for a couple of new releases. Good Boys managed an impressive $2.1 million on Thursday, putting it in a great position to top our prediction by a substantial margin. I would love to get a pleasant surprise at the box office right now.
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August 15th, 2019
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Like last weekend, there are five wide releases coming out this weekend, and again, this is just too many. I can’t imagine all of them will find an audience. In fact, I would be less surprised if none of them really found an audience and Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw remained in first place, than if all of them found an audience. The Angry Birds Movie 2 is the biggest of the new releases, but it debuted on Tuesday, so its demand will be deflated by the weekend. Good Boys has deceptively good reviews, but the buzz isn’t where it should be. 47 Meters Down: Uncaged is a horror film entering a too-crowded market. Meanwhile, both Blinded By the Light and Where’d You Go, Bernadette? will be lucky to avoid the Mendoza Line. This weekend last year, Crazy Rich Asians opened. It wasn’t a monster hit out of the gate, but it was a bigger hit than anything opening this weekend.
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August 1st, 2019
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July bounced back from June with both Spider-Man: Far from Home and The Lion King getting to $1 billion worldwide. Domestically, we are still behind 2018’s pace by more than $400 million, but that’s a substantial improvement over where we were at the start of the month. August should continue this winning streak, at least initially. Hobbs and Shaw could open with close to $100 million, but the only other film opening this month that has a real shot at $100 million in total is Dora and the Lost City of Gold. Last August, both Crazy Rich Asians and The Meg topped $100 million, while Christopher Robin came within 1% of that milestone. This August might be better at the very top, but I don’t think the top three this month will top the top three last month. Maybe if we get a surprise hit, it will, but I’m not willing to bet on that. On the other hand, unless something dramatic happens, 2019 should at least come close to matching last year’s pace and that’s better than most months have done this year.
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July 16th, 2019
Comedy starring Jacob Tremblay, Keith L. Williams, and Brady Noon opens August 16 ... Full Movie Details.
After being invited to his first kissing party, 12-year-old Max is panicking because he doesn’t know how to kiss. Eager for some pointers, Max and his best friends Thor and Lucas decide to use Max’s dad’s drone—which Max is forbidden to touch—to spy (they think) on a teenage couple making out next door. But when things go ridiculously wrong, the drone is destroyed. Desperate to replace it before Max’s dad gets home, the boys skip school and set off on an odyssey of epically bad decisions involving some accidentally stolen drugs, frat-house paintball, and running from both the cops and terrifying teenage girls.
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