October 1st, 2023
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The pups of PAW Patrol rarely lose their battles on screen, and they are posting another victory off screen this weekend, heading to a weekend win at the box office with a projected $23 million debut. That’s just a shade higher than our Friday-morning prediction, and enough to see off two films that looked like contenders going into the weekend: Saw X with $18 million, and The Creator with $14 million.
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September 28th, 2023
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After a lackluster few weeks, this weekend sees three new films open wide, along with an even wider expansion for Dumb Money. While none of this week’s new arrivals will likely make a monumental splash, they should nevertheless deliver a fun and competitive weekend at the domestic box office, while providing movie aficionados with a wider range of genres to choose from.
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May 14th, 2021
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There are four new wide releases this weekend, a new high point as theaters reopen and the theatrical market continues its recovery. In spite of some fairly impressive star power on display, there’s not a huge amount of doubt about which film will top the chart this weekend. Spiral, the latest incarnation of the Saw franchise is getting the widest release, in 2,811 theaters, and by far the loudest pre-release buzz. The sheer quantity of new films makes this a challenging weekend to predict, but here’s what our model has to say…
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May 13th, 2021
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Wrath of Man entered last week’s chart as one of only two new wide releases. The other, Here Today, was never going to challenge for widest release, or at the box office. This week was more of an unknown as we see the debut of Lionsgate's Spiral. The latest film from the Saw franchise, starring Chris Rock, Max Minghella and Samuel L. Jackson, is opening in 2,811 locations. Also new this week is Profile, the thriller from Focus Features, which debuts in 2,033 theaters. Rounding out the new wide releases is Those Who Wish Me Dead and Finding You, with the latter playing in 1,312 locations. While we don’t have a reported number for Those Who Wish Me Dead yet, estimates have the film opening in around 2,900 locations...
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October 1st, 2018
September turned out to be a solid month. The Nun beat expectations to become a $100 million hit, while there were also several midlevel hits in the mix. Granted, it lost ground when compared to last September, but last September broke records, and this September held on better than expected. Hopefully this means October will be able to continue 2018’s winning ways. There are several potential $100 million hits, starting with Venom and A Star is Born, which open the first weekend. Meanwhile, both First Man and Halloween could break the century mark later in the month. By comparison, last October, no movie topped $100 million, with Blade Runner 2049 coming the closest. 2018 should extend its lead over 2017 during the full month, potentially by a significant margin.
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January 22nd, 2018
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It’s a really slow week on the home market. There are only a few releases that went anywhere at the box office, led by Jigsaw, which is a bad movie. Meanwhile, Geostorm is so bad it’s good. It’s fun, if you are into B movies, but it’s not Pick of the Week material. The only real contenders are Jane, which is only coming out on Video on Demand, and Attack of the Killer Tomatoes, which is getting a Two-Disc Special Edition. In the end, I went with Attack of the Killer Tomatoes, mainly because Jane doesn’t come out on DVD / Blu-ray until next month.
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November 14th, 2017
Thor: Ragnarok led the weekend chart and actually beat our prediction by a small degree with $57.08 million. The two new releases, Daddy’s Home 2 and Murder on the Orient Express, also beat expectations. Unfortunately, that wasn’t enough to help the overall box office, as it fell 16% from last weekend to $151 million over the weekend. This is 4.9% lower than the same weekend last year. 2017 has fallen further behind 2016 at $8.98 billion to $9.46 billion. 2017 is 5.1% or $480 million behind last year’s pace and I’ll be happy if we can cut that deficit in half by the end of the year.
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November 9th, 2017
After last week’s debut, Thor: Ragnarok should have no trouble repeating in first place, but we do have two new releases that should be in a battle for second. Murder on the Orient Express had a strong opening in the U.K. and that bodes well for its opening this weekend. On the other hand, Daddy’s Home 2’s box office potential is moving in the other direction. As I started writing this, there were still no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. This weekend last year, Doctor Strange led the way with $42.97 million. Thor: Ragnarok should top that by around $10 million. Likewise, this week’s new releases should top last year’s new releases. However, last year had a lot better depth. Last year, every film in the top ten earned more than $3 million. This year, I’m not sure the fifth place film will earn more than $3 million. I fear 2017 will lose yet again in the year-over-year comparison.
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November 7th, 2017
Thor: Ragnarok beat predictions by a substantial margin earning the fourth biggest opening weekend of the year. Its opening weekend haul of $122.74 million helped this weekend rise 135% compared to last weekend hitting $179 million. Unfortunately, while Thor: Ragnarok was a monster hit, the rest of the box office wasn’t able to make much of an impact, leaving the overall box office down 6.6% from this weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2017 has pulled in $8.77 billion, putting it behind 2016's pace at 4.9% or $450 million.
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November 4th, 2017
It looks like Thor: Ragnarok will top predictions and our increased predictions based on its Thursday previews. The film earned $46.82 million on Friday, which is the fifth-biggest opening day in 2017. Additionally, while its reviews are off their peak, its Tomatometer Score is still 93% positive, and it earned an A from CinemaScore. Both of these results suggest long legs, meaning it should hit $115 million during its opening weekend, more or less. If it can reach that over the weekend, then it will only need average legs to get to $300 million domestically. Granted, Justice League does open in just two weeks and that will hurt this film’s legs, but this is still a start worth celebrating.
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November 2nd, 2017
November begins with Thor: Ragnarok and A Bad Moms Christmas. Thor: Ragnarok is widely expected to be the sixth film of 2017 to open with $100 million. On the other hand, A Bad Moms Christmas opened yesterday and when I started writing this in the early hours of Thursday morning, there were still no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. Oh boy. That’s not a good sign. Worse still, no other new release it going to come close to $10 million over the weekend. This weekend last year, there were three wide releases that earned more than $10 million, led by Doctor Strange with $85 million. Thor: Ragnarok will top that, but this year's depth is terrible compared to last year and we will very likely see yet another loss in the year-over-year comparison.
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October 31st, 2017
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It was a terrible weekend at the box office with only two films cracking $10 million, Jigsaw and Tyler Perry’s Boo 2: A Madea Halloween. Geostorm earned third place with just $5.90 million. Overall, the box office fell 21% from last weekend to just $75 million. More importantly, this is 15% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2017 continues to struggle with a running tally of $8.57 billion. This is $470 million or $5.2% below last year’s pace, meaning we fell behind last year’s pace by a further 0.2 percentage points. The box office really needed to be eating into the deficit during the month of October, but that hasn’t been the case.
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October 28th, 2017
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As predicted, Jigsaw led the way on Friday. However, it didn’t do as well as previews suggested, as it earned $7.17 million during its opening day. I don’t expect its legs to improve during the rest of the weekend, as its reviews are just 37% positive, and it earned a B from CinemaScore. It will still do better than our $14 million prediction, but not by as much as we thought it would yesterday. Look for $17 million over the weekend, which is the second weakest opening in the franchise and the weakest in terms of ticket sales. I really think Lionsgate will end this franchise, at least for a while. Perhaps, in ten years or so, we will get a remake.
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October 27th, 2017
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Jigsaw earned $1.6 million during its midnight previews last night. Happy Death Day earned an even $1 million during its previews on its way to a $26 million opening. However, there are many factors that will result in shorter legs. For instance, Happy Death Day earned better reviews, while Jigsaw is the latest installment in a long-running franchise. Finally, Happy Death Day’s target audience skewed female, while Jigsaw skews male and men are more likely to rush out to see a movie than women are. That said, this is a great start and the film should easily top our prediction with at least $20 million during its opening weekend.
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October 26th, 2017
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There are three wide releases coming out this week, although only Jigsaw is expected to make any real impact at the box office. The other two, Suburbicon and Thank You for Your Service, are opening in barely more than 2,000 theaters and neither of them are expected to do well at the box office. Meanwhile, Tyler Perry’s Boo 2: A Madea Halloween, has an actual shot at repeating in first place, mostly because of the weak competition. This is terrible news for the overall box office, as it means we are going to have a hard time matching last year’s box office, even though last year there was only one wide release, Inferno.
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October 1st, 2017
September destroyed the previous September monthly record for total box office take, with $800 million or so (we won’t know the exact figure until after the weekend), which tops 2016’s record of $616 million. Granted, this is almost entirely due to It’s record breaking run, and the rest of the month was merely average. Kingsman: The Golden Circle was the only other film to come close to $100 million. October doesn’t look any better, as far as depth is concerned. Blade Runner 2049 is widely expected to be the biggest hit of the month, but it is the only film expected to reach $100 million domestically. Boo 2 should be the second biggest hit of the month, while there are only a couple of other films that have a shot at $50 million. Part of the problem is the level of competition, as there are 16 films opening during the four October weekends. (Needless to say, some of the predictions below will be a little short, as there’s not much to say about a film that will barely open in the top ten and disappear two weeks later.) That’s way too many and most will be buried by the competition. Last October was a flop, as no film earned more than $100 million at the box office. There were a few films that came close, including the original Boo! movie. As long as Blade Runner 2049 matches expectations, 2017 should win the year-over-year comparison by a small margin. If we get one surprise hit, then 2017 has a real shot at closing the gap with 2016 by a significant margin. I choose to be cautiously optimistic.
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November 7th, 2014
There are a ton of limited releases coming out this week, including
The Theory of Everything, which many people think will be an Awards Season contender. There are also a couple of foreign-language films worth checking out,
Why Don't You Play in Hell and
The Way He Looks. And finally, there are a trio of documentaries,
Actress,
Death Metal Angola, and
National Gallery. Unfortunately, there are also a lot of films earning mixed or weaker reviews, so hopefully the good films don't get squeezed out.
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October 30th, 2014
Tomorrow is Halloween, which is one of the worst days of the year as far as box office numbers are concerned. I would argue only Christmas Eve is worse. Nightcrawler is the only truly wide release of the week, but it is not expected to be a hit. It will likely earn first place, but with only around $10 million. There are two other films of note: Before I Go to Sleep and the tenth anniversary release of Saw. Before I Go to Sleep is the third release from Clarius Entertainment whose first two releases bombed horribly. This one is expected to finish somewhere in-between the first two at the box office. The Saw franchise is the highest grossing horror franchise of all time, but will people really go to theaters to see it? I would assume fans of these movies likely own the film on Blu-ray, so staying at home would be more appealing. Worse still, this weekend last year was the first weekend of November and it shows. There were five films that earned more than $10 million, led by Ender's Game. This year, we might have no movies earning more than $10 million. Ouch.
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September 23rd, 2014
This is both a great week on the home market, as well as an amazing week on the home market. There are by my count, at least a dozen releases that could be considered must haves or perfect Christmas gifts, which is great. What makes it amazing is the lack of filler. There are a couple of weak releases here and there, but the hit to miss ratio is as good as I can remember. The biggest release of the week, according to Amazon.com, is the Halloween Complete Collection, but it is not the best release. Contenders for Pick of the Week include a couple of limited releases: Ida - Buy from Amazon: DVD or Blu-ray and We Are the Best! - Buy from Amazon: DVD or Blu-ray. However, in the end I went with a TV on DVD release, Modern Family: Season Five - Buy from Amazon: DVD.
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