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Weekend Predictions: Ouija Will Win, But By How Much?

October 23rd, 2014

Ouija poster

It is not a good week at the box office for new releases. There are only two films opening wide, one of which is earning terrible reviews and the other is earning terrible buzz. At the moment, Ouija's Tomatometer Score is barely in the double-digits. That said, it is a horror film opening the week before Halloween, so it should make at least $20 million at the box office. On the other hand, John Wick's reviews are Award-worthy... but the buzz is so quiet, I doubt many award voters will see it. This weekend last year was led by Bad Grandpa, which opened in first place with $32.06. Maybe if Ouija is a surprise hit, it will match that figure. However, while 2013 looked better at the top, it had really weak depth beyond the top five, so 2014 will likely win in the year-over-year comparison.

Ouija is the third horror film to open this month, which isn't surprising since Halloween boosts horror films. This film is going to need the boost. Its reviews are currently just 11% positive, which is just awful no matter how you look at it. The film's reviews are going to hurt its box office chances, but it might not effect it during the opening weekend. On the high end, it could make as much as $30 million. On the low end, it might fail to reach $20 million. I think the lower end is more likely and I'm predicting $23 million.

Fury opened weaker than expected, but its reviews are strong enough that it should have a stronger than average hold over the weekend. Look for a sophomore stint of $13 million, lifting its running tally to $46 million. At this pace, it will earn $70 million to $80 million, which isn't a bad run, but it was an expensive movie to make.

Gone Girl should be relatively close behind with $12 million over the weekend for a running tally of nearly $125 million. This is enough to cover its production budget and adding in its international numbers, it has already broken even.

The studio expects John Wick to make between $7 million and $8 million, but these expectations tend to be a little on the low side. This way, when the movie makes $10 million to $11 million, the studio can turn around and tout that as a success. The reviews suggest a strong opening. Perhaps it will grab second place with $15 million to $17 million. However, I think being more conservative is wiser and I'm going with an $11 million opening.

The Book of Life should round out the top five with just over $10 million. Its reviews are great and it is a family film, so that should also help its legs. That said, it is performing below my expectations.

There is one last noteworthy film to talk about: St. Vincent. The film is expected to expand into more than 2,000 theaters on Friday, which should propel it into the top ten. On the low end, it will earn between $5 million and $6 million, but I'm going to be a little more bullish than that and predict sixth place with just under $10 million.


Filed under: Weekend Preview, St. Vincent, Ouija, The Book of Life, Fury, Fury, Gone Girl, John Wick