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Weekend Predictions: There Will Be Pain

April 25th, 2013

It is the final weekend before the Summer blockbuster season, which means the new releases this weekend are not prime releases. Pain and Gain at least has a shot at first place. Most think The Big Wedding won't crack $10 million during the weekend. The only good news is that last year was also a bad week at the box office. The biggest new release was The Pirates! Band of Misfits, which had to settle for second place with just $11.14 million, while Think Like a Man remained in first place with $17.60 million. I think 2013's one-two-punch will top 2012's one-two punch. However, last year had better depth and 2013 will again lose in the year-over-year comparison.

Oblivion opened well and has mostly positive reviews, although not at the overall positive level, plus it has no direct competition to deal with this weekend. That said, it is a sci-fi action film and those can be front-loaded. Falling close to 50% seems quite likely, which would leave the film with $19 million over its sophomore stint. Perhaps it will make as much as $20 million, or perhaps it will fall as low as $15 million. I think just over $19 million is the safest bet.

Pain and Gain is causing a split among analysts. Some think it will earn first place with $25 million or so, while others think it will be in a three-way battle for second place with just $14 million. On the positive side, Dwayne Johnson is coming off of G.I.Joe: Retaliation, which opened with more than $40 million. However, this film has more in common with Snitch, which made just $13.17 million during its opening weekend. Mark Wahlberg's most recent film was Broken City, which bombed. The reviews are better than most Michael Bay movies, but that's not saying a lot. Look for $18 million over the weekend, which will likely only be enough for second place.

42 has the best reviews in the top five and a more mature target demographic, both of which should help its legs. It pulled in $17.72 million last weekend and I think it will earn between $11 million and $12 million this weekend.

The Big Wedding has a big cast, but that's about all it has going for it. The buzz is weak, while the reviews are awful. I wasn't expecting a good movie, but I didn't think it would be challenging Scary Movie for worst film of the month. There are some who think it will battle for second place with $14 million, but there are many more people who think it will fail to reach $10 million. I'm in the latter group and my prediction is fourth place with $9 million.

The Croods should round out the top five with between $6 million and $7 million. The lower end is more likely, but either way it is a success.


Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Croods, Pain & Gain, Oblivion, The Big Wedding, 42, Snitch, Scary Movie, Mark Wahlberg, Michael Bay, Dwayne Johnson