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Weekend Wrap-Up: Many Reasons to Celebrate Weekend Results

February 7th, 2012

It was Super Bowl weekend, which apparently some people care about. (Not me. Go B.C. Lions!) The crossover audience between the Super Bowl and most movies is quite high, so it is no real shock that the box office was down compared to last weekend. However, it was only down 8% to $116 million. This was 33% higher than the same weekend last year. Both Chronicle and The Woman in Black topped expectations by significant degrees, while the weakest movie the top five missed weekend predictions by less than $1 million. Year-to-date, 2012 is ahead of 2011's pace by 12% at $964 million to $850 million. Before we get too excited, by this weekend in 2010, the box office had already pulled in $1.21 billion.

Chronicle rode the best reviews of the weekend to top spot with $22.00 million. This is the fourth best Super Bowl opening weekend of all time. Additionally, the word-of-mouth is excellent and it could have better than average legs. Finally, it only cost $12 million to make. Even if it cost twice that much to advertise, which would be likely, it is still well on its way to profitability. If it makes more than $60 million domestically, it will show a profit before international and home market numbers are taken into account.

How strong was the weekend? I had higher than average expectations for The Woman in Black. The Woman in Black beat my expectations by nearly $2 million with $20.87 million. Yet it still had to settle for second place. The film's reviews have unfortunately sagged since before the weekend, but are still in the overall positive range. My expectations for its legs are not quite as rosy as before, but $50 million should be enough to ensure a profit for CBS Films on the domestic front. With its British setting, it could be a bigger hit when it opens there on Friday.

The Grey added $9.30 million over the past three days for a total of $34.56 million after ten. Its running tally is already ahead of its $25 million production budget, but it did fall a little faster than expected. Perhaps this was due to the strong crossover between the film's target audience and the Super Bowl's target audience and the game was better than expected so people were sticking around till the very end instead of going out to see a movie by halftime. With excellent reviews, it should continue to draw in viewers and it should break even before it reaches the home market.

Big Miracle opened in fourth place with $7.76 million. This is inline with predictions, but it reportedly cost between $30 million and $40 million to make. So unless it's family friendly / safe date night feel help its legs dramatically, it will need help internationally and on the home market to break even.

Underworld: Awakening rounded out the top five with $5.50 million over the weekend for a total of $54.25 million after three. It should overtake Evolution as the biggest hit in the franchise domestically and worldwide, while it is on pace to earn a profit sometime during its home market run.

One for the Money just missed the top five with $5.21 million over the weekend for a total of $19.62 million after two. It fell 55%, which is really high for this type of movie; however, its reviews were only 3% positive, while its opening was boosted by a Groupon coupon. Man on the Ledge held on a little better, percentwise, down 46% to $4.35 million over the weekend for a total of $14.62 million after two. It will come close to original expectations, but that's not saying much.


Filed under: Weekend Box Office, Underworld: Awakening, One for the Money, Man on a Ledge, The Woman in Black, The Grey, Big Miracle, Chronicle