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How Big Will It Be?

October 28th, 2009

This Is It gets off to an early start tonight for its scheduled two-week run. Will the concert film / behind-the-scenes documentary perform as well as some are expecting, or is this a movie that is just for the hardcore Michael Jackson fans?

I think for most people the enjoyment they derive from this movie will be based on two things. Firstly, how much they like Michael Jackson, obviously. But secondly, what kind of movie they are expecting. If you are expecting a concert film filled with the spectacle that is Michael Jackson, you will likely be disappointed, because while there is a lot of music, it's only the rehearsal footage. Likewise, if you are expecting an in-depth documentary into the performer's life, you will also be disappointed, because while there are some behind-the-scenes footage, home movies, etc., that is not the focus of the film. If going into the movie you understand that, odds are you will find enough of both parts to be entertained.

As for the film's box office chances, there are many that think this film will be able to break the record for biggest single day in October, while it could be one of the ten best opening Wednesdays of all time. In order to do that, it will have to make just over $21 million tonight, which is very possible. In fact, I'm going with a prediction of $26 million tonight; however, look for a massive drop-off of more than 50% tomorrow, while it may struggle to top $50 million over the weekend. If it can come close to this amount, then even if it makes more during its first five days than it does during the rest of its run, which is likely, it will still reach $100 million domestically, and it could perform even better internationally.

We will update these predictions, as well as the rest of the top five, with the regularly scheduled box office prediction column tomorrow.


Filed under: Michael Jackson's This Is It