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Hot Mama

April 28th, 2008

The last weekend before the summer blockbuster rush turned out to be a positive one with only one film missing Thursday's prediction. This helped the overall box office to $91 million over the weekend, although that was 4% less than last weekend. More importantly, it was 17% more than the same weekend last year and that helped reduce 2007's lead over 2008 $2.66 billion to $2.59 billion.

Tina Fey and Amy Poehler proved to be a potent one-two punch at the box office. This helped Baby Mama open in first place and earn $17.41 million, which matched Thursday's prediction nearly perfectly. With reviews that managed to remain in the overall positive level, it should perform relatively well in the long term. However, the level of competition explodes on Thursday with the early release of Iron Man. Even the counter-programming slot is filled by Made of Honor, which puts tremendous pressure on this film's chances. $50 million isn't out of the question, but it could be tough.

Harold & Kumar Go to White Castle bombed at the box office, opening with just $5.48 million and ending with $18.23 million and it didn't find an audience until the home market. Because if this, it seemed very possible that Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo Bay would perform the same. However, not only did the movie open in significantly more theaters, it earned a surprisingly strong per theater average and this combined to give the film $14.91 million over the weekend. This was within the admittedly wide range given on Thursday, but on the high side of the final prediction of $13 million. The film's internal multiplier wasn't great, nor are its reviews, but with a reported production budget of just $6 million, the studio is likely ecstatic with the film's performance so far. Profitability is assured.

The Forbidden Kingdom performed better than its reviews, its midweek box office, and its two stars would indicate. The best explanation for this I can come up with is, it's a kids movie. Taking into account a younger target demographic explains it it all. If this is true, its second weekend box office of $11.21 million and 10-day running tally of $38.24 million bodes well for its future and would give it a final box office of $60 million to $70 million. If it can match that internationally, it will start showing a profit early in its home market run.

Forgetting Sarah Marshall wasn't able to overtake The Forbidden Kingdom over the weekend despite matching high expectations perfectly. On Thursday we predicted just over $11 million, and over the weekend it made $11.03 million. Overall, the film has earned $35.09 million in 10 days, and should come close to original expectations.

The final film in the top five wasn't Deception, it wasn't even Prom Night. It was Nim's Island, which fell just 20% to $4.55 million over the weekend while its running tally rose to $38.98 million. However, while the film has managed fifth place two weeks in a row, it is a case of too little, too late and it is unlikely to earn a profit anytime soon.

The final wide release of the week was Deception, which was only expected to earn between $4 and $5 million over the weekend and slip into the final spot in the top five. However, in reality it earned half of that with $2.31 million in 2,000 theaters and barely reached the top ten. With terrible reviews and a per theater average of barely more than $1,000, I can't imagine it will last in theaters much longer.

We now get to the sophomore class, which had just two residents. 88 Minutes held on better than expected with $3.59 million over the weekend and $12.63 million in total. Expelled: No Intelligence Allowed had the worst week-to-week drop off in the top ten, or would have had it not fallen out of the top 10 with just $1.39 million and after 10-days the film has pulled in only $5.30 million.


Filed under: Forgetting Sarah Marshall, Baby Mama, The Forbidden Kingdom, Nim's Island, Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo Bay, 88 Minutes, Expelled: No Intelligence Allowed, Deception