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Harry Potter and the Record Opening

July 12th, 2007

Well, the numbers are in for Wednesday and it looks like we are in for a very good weekend. In fact, 2007 is back to re-writing the history books and we have at least a few more records that will be set before long.

Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix was able to break the record for best Wednesday opening with a stellar $44.2 million, nearly 10% more than what Spider-man 2 earned 3 years ago. This is significantly more than yesterday's prediction and the publicity that comes from breaking the record should help add a few million to its weekend total. If we just multiply Spider-man 2's opening 5-days total we get $97 million for the weekend and about $168 million in total. However, slightly weaker reviews, and a greater Fanboy effect, if that's possible, will result in a higher front-end and a lower weekend total. Look for just over $90 million over the weekend, a 5-day total of $160 million, and over $300 million by the end of its run.

The Transformers is also cruising for $300 million and a strong sophomore stint will go a long way to helping it get there. If it can avoid a 50% drop-off, perhaps earn as much as much as $40 million, it should have a better than 50% chance at reaching that goal. Normally I would think holding on that much would be a pipe dream, especially with the Fanboy Effect in play here. However, the film has shown incredible resilience thus far and I think it can do it. OK, $40 million is a tad optimistic, but $37.5 million should be right on target.

$300 million now appears out of reach for Ratatouille, but $200 million isn't. Earlier this week it had climbed ahead of Cars' pace, at least for a couple of days before the opening of Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix on Wednesday, but I think we can agree that's an anomaly and it should return to pace over the weekend. Look for just under $20 million over the weekend and just over $140 million in total.

It will be a milestone weekend for Live Free or Die Hard as it should hit $100 million after earning $10 million over the weekend.

The final film in the top ten should be License to Wed, which should see a substantial drop-off given its reviews. So far the film hasn't collapsed under the weight of all of the negative reviews, but a 50% drop-off is likely. That would leave it with just over $5 million for the weekend and $28 million in total.

The final wide release of the week is Captivity, kind of. Maybe. The film has been pushed back twice in two months and now it is opening in just over 1,000 theaters, which is barely a wide release. Add in reviews that are barely there and overwhelmingly negative. Add in a star that hasn't exactly established herself as a box office draw. This could lead to the film missing the top ten during its opening with under $2 million, but $3 million is more likely.


Filed under: Transformers, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, Ratatouille, Live Free or Die Hard, License to Wed, Captivity