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Quiet Weekend for New Releases

January 7th, 2005

The weekend after Christmas is historically a very poor weekend to release a new film, as is the first weekend of the new year. Of course, normally these are the same weekend, but not this year. So by stretching out this down time we get two weekends in a row where's there's not much new to get bodies into theatres.

Meet the Fockers will likely see a 50% drop at the box office for the first full weekend of the year, but it should still easily finish first with $20 million. That won’t be quite enough for the film to hit $200 million, but it will be close.

Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events will also see a 50% drop at the box office, however, $7.5 million will still be enough for the film to cross $100 million at the box office. That should be enough to stop someone from losing their job, but not enough for the film to show a profit for quite some time.

Coming right behind will be The Aviator also at $7.5 million. It’s going to take some serious Oscar buzz for the film to recoup its costs and even so, that won’t come till the home market at the earliest.

The only new release the week is White Noise, the first starring role for Michael Keaton is over six years. And like that film, this one is being savaged by critics. With both the reviews and the theatre count much weaker than expected, the film’s box office potential is cut way and this film could struggle to make it into the top five with just $6 million.

Rounding out the top five are two films that should both take in $5 million. Fat Albert and Ocean's Twelve should be in a horse race for the final spot in the top five, with the latter having a slight edge.

Also worth noting, Coach Carter is having a sneak peak on Saturday in nearly 1000 theatres.

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Filed under: Meet the Fockers, Ocean's Twelve, Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events, The Aviator, Coach Carter, White Noise, Fat Albert