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Holdovers Help, But Box Office still Hurting

April 18th, 2005

Is 2005 officially in trouble? Maybe not, but it's getting close. This week the box office was down 4.25% compared to last weekend and an insane 20.1% from last year. Year-to-date, the box office for the year is now at $2.243 billion, or 5% down from the same timeframe last year. At this pace, Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith will need to be a monster hit to turn the earnings around. And by monster I mean Titanic-like numbers.

The Amityville Horror just missed expectations with $23.5 million and an easy first place, however, that was behind both Texas Chainsaw Massacre and Dawn of the Dead. Its internal multiplier was slightly better than the latter film and if the film can overcome very weak reviews and earn slightly better legs, then $55 million to $60 million is still well within reach.

Prospects look better this week for Sahara, which only fell 28% to $13.1 million. Even so, the $130 million production budget means that this film will probably never make a profit, and if it does it will probably have to wait till tertiary markets (hotels, airplanes, etc.).

Fever Pitch is also showing better legs than expected, although not to the same degree as Sahara, dropping just 31% to $8.5 million. Also like the previous film, these strong legs are too little, too late, and earning a profit will be difficult at best and won't happen till after the film's initial push into the home market.

For the second week in a row Sin City saw its box office slashed in half, this time to $6.7 million, thus firmly cementing its standing as a cult classic. The film's short legs are very much the result of the Fanboy Effect and not an indication of poor reviews and this bodes well for the film's chances on the home market. Of the more than four million people who saw the film opening weekend, nearly half will probably buy the DVD the first week of release.

As expected, Guess Who lasted another weekend in the top five earning $4.9 million along the way, slightly more than expected. The film has now brought in $57.5 million, enough to be considered a midlevel hit.

On the other hand, State Property 2 collapsed after its debut on Wednesday. After earning $216,000 opening day, it could only add $760,000 over the weekend. A better start and better reviews than the original should allow the film to earn more at the box office.

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Filed under: Sin City, Guess Who, Sahara, The Amityville Horror, Fever Pitch, State Property 2