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Dukes to Dominate

August 5th, 2005

Due to a pretty last minutes scheduling change, The Dukes of Hazzard is the only new film to open wide this weekend. And while this should help its opening box office, it's too soon to tell how it will affect the overall box office. On a positive note, this time last year was really soft so the box office should recover on a year-to-year comparison.

As previously stated, The Dukes of Hazzard is the only wide release this weekend, and oh boy is it wide. At 3785 theatres, it is the ninth widest release of all time and the 39th film to get a mega-wide release, (3500 theatres or more.) Of the previous 38 films, only 4 of them did not reach the $10,000 mark on the Per Theatre Charts during their opening weekend. The Dukes of Hazzard will be the fifth. Reviews are even weaker than I expected with many complaints dealing with the changes made from the TV show, which is never a good sign. Last year there were two wide releases that earned nearly $32 million combined; there's a chance The Dukes of Hazzard will beat that figure. But more likely it will fall just short with $31 million.

That means The Wedding Crashers will return to its usual spot at second place, the third time in four weeks that the film has finished there. So far the film has seen tiny drop-offs of just 24.29% and 21.98%, this weekend it could have its smallest drop-off yet finishing with $16 million. But the increased competition should push is slightly lower to $14.5 million.

On the other hand, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory should have the best week-to-week drop-off of its run finishing with $10 million over the weekend. Hitting $200 million is a lot more difficult than its $56 million opening suggested, but it could still come close enough that the studio will give it a push.

Sky High had the best opening of the three news wide releases that came out last weekend, and it should continue its strong run with a sub-40% drop-off. This weekend the film should add $9 million and the TV series should begin production shortly.

Must Love Dogs may have had the weakest opening last weekend, but paradoxically, it should have the best holdover. This is mostly due to its target demographic, which isn't known for rushing out to see a film on Friday, or even the opening weekend. Give it $8 million for the weekend and $50 million overall.

Just missing the top five should be March of the Penguins, which is more than doubling its theatre count to 1867. This weekend it should finish in sixth place with just over $6 million for a $25 million running tally.

Also of note, The Great Raid is having a sneak peak in 765 theatres tomorrow.

Lastly, I forgot to mention on Monday that Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith topped Lord of the Rings: Return of the King on the All-Time Charts. The film now sits in seventh place, which is as high as it's going to go as Spider-Man is well out of reach, barring a re-release in a few years. .

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Filed under: Star Wars Ep. III: Revenge of the Sith, Wedding Crashers, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, The Dukes of Hazzard, La marche de l'empereur, Sky High, Must Love Dogs, The Great Raid