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Will it be 2 Victories for Spider-Man?

July 9th, 2004

A trio of newcomers open wide this week, but it will be unlikely that any of them will unseat the current box office champ, Spider-man 2.

Spider-man 2 continues to outpace the original at the box office taking in $200 million in just 8 days, that's one day less than the previous record. However, strong weekday figures, thanks to summer holidays, have a lot to do with that. Now the film has just nine days to earn over $90 million to tie Shrek 2 for fastest to $300 million; that's 3 days for the weekend, followed by 4 weekdays and then Friday and Saturday. A $50 million weekend would really help toward that goal, but I think the film will have to settle for $40 million. Either way, this film could become the highest grossing box office disappointment since Star Wars: The Phantom Menace. Note: For those of you that have complained about me using the term, 'disappointment,' the film is tracking about 15% below expectations. This is not because the film is doing poorly; it is because the expectations were so high. However, failing to live up to high expectations is the definition of disappointment.

It looks like Will Ferrell has another $100 million dollar movie on his hands with Anchorman. The reviews are not great, but strong enough that they shouldn't hurt the films performance. I expect the film to open with $35 million over the weekend and have enough legs to easily reach $100 million. Although it won't match Elf at the box office.

King Arthur stumbled out of the gates on Wednesday, taking in just $4.8 million. As with most disappointing Wednesday openings, this could either be the result of bad marketing or a portent of things to come. Bad reviews point to the portent option, but without Thursday's numbers it's hard to predict. Should the film earn more than $4 million on Thursday, than it should earn $23 million over the weekend. If it earns less than $3 million, then it will limp through the weekend with just $12 million. Splitting the difference and we come up with an $18 million prediction.

Although its still increasing its theatre count, Fahrenheit 9/11 won't be able to stop it's slide at the box office. However, earning another $10 million at the box office will be more than enough to ensure it will unseat To Fly! and becomes the undisputed documentary champion of all time. Will it be enough to make sure the film hits $100 million? It might be if the studio helps push it a little further.

The last new film on the charts is Sleepover. The genre has become quite crowded recently, but that's because these films are very reliable, nearly critic proof, and almost always have profitable, if unspectacular box offices. This film should be no exception; look for $8 million over the weekend and $25 million over its entire run. And the film should more than match that on the home market.

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Filed under: Shrek 2, Spider-Man 2, Fahrenheit 9/11, Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy, King Arthur, Sleepover