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The Calm Before the Winter Storm

December 3rd, 2004

The first weekend in December follows one of the busiest weekends of the year, and the studios are usually reluctant to put out their A-List material. This year it's an extreme example as there are no wide releases and while one of the limited releases has a reasonable shot at earning a place in the top 10, there will probably be no change in the top five, other than massive drops in box office dollars. Because of this, this week's column will be shorter than usual.

Three things should happen to National Treasure this weekend. One, it will drop at least 50%. Two, it will finish first overall for the third week in a row. Three, it will cross $100 million at the box office.

Coming in second will be The Incredibles with $11 million. The film is now tracking below Monsters Inc. but still has a substantial lead as should finish above that film on the all time charts.

With any luck Christmas with the Kranks will be hit especially hard this weekend landing at just over $9 million.

The Polar Express will continue it's too little, too late run at $100 million cutting the distance than in half with just under $9 million.

After stumbling over Thanksgiving weekend, SpongeBob SquarePants will plummet to just $7 million.

The only new film with a serious shot at making the top ten is Closer. The film was made with obvious Oscar aspirations, however, the mediocre reviews suggest that is unlikely at this point. Look for $4 million this weekend, which will give it a high enough per theatre average to expand, but the word-of-mouth will be weak so it won't be able to sustain its momentum.

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Filed under: The Incredibles, The Polar Express, National Treasure, SpongeBob SquarePants: The Movie, Christmas with the Kranks, Closer