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X Marks the Spot

May 2nd, 2003

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This week marks the official start of the Summer Box Office season. And while there are two wide releases, it seems only one is talked about by the press.

X-Men 2 is the first big release of the summer, and will be used to judge all other blockbusters to come. Fox was able to get X-Men 2 the largest release domestically, (opening in 3,741 theaters, 59 more than the previous record) and worldwide, (opening in 93 markets in just 3 days.) And with excellent reviews this movie should open huge, and it must with a production budget of $125 million and Print & Advertising budget estimated at $50 million. If X-Men doesn’t place in the top 5 biggest weekend (about $75 million) it will be seen as a disappointment. Second place is a real possibility ($90+ million), but beating Spider-Man is doubtful at best.

The Lizzie McGuire Movie is the second wide release in 2,825 theatres, a little more than initial predictions. With a production budget smaller than X-Men 2’s Print budget alone, The Lizzie McGuire movie isn’t in the same class. However, with the popularity of its star, Hilary Duff, it could have a more profitable box office on its opening weekend. Reviews are weak, but on par with other movies with such a narrow target audience. Look for The Lizzie McGuire movie to match its production budget ($15 million) opening weekend, and have a profitable run.

Last week's 1-2-3 will finish this week 3-4-5, probably in the same order, all with $7 million - $9 million box offices. Anger Management could surpass Identity depending on which movie the X-Men overflow decides to see instead. After this weekend, only its third in release, Holes’ box office will be higher than its total budget. Something that is rarely seen these days.

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Filed under: X2, Anger Management, Holes, Identity