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Will it be the Bad Boys' weekend, or just plain bad?

July 18th, 2003

With three movies opening this week, only one is opening in more than 3000 theatres. It is getting the majority of the press and others will have to fight for the scraps.

Almost guaranteed to lead the box office, for one week anyway, is the sequel Bad Boys II. This is the widest release of the week at just under 3200 theatres, it is also the worst reviewed release of the week. Although it might switch with How to Deal before the weekend is over. The original made roughly $15 million during it's opening weekend and $65 million overall. Bad Boys II's opening will land right in the middle of those two figures. $40 million and a chance to become the first movie to open with more than $40 million to fail to make $100 million total box office.

Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl has a chance to do what no movie has done since Finding Nemo, not collapse on its second weekend of release. Word of mouth for this film is excellent and it should finish the weekend with $30 million.

The next three spots will be very close together.

Terminator 3 will finish third for the second week in a row with just over $10 million. While that's an improvement over last weekend's drop, it's still too high considering Terminator 3's price tag.

Rowan Atkinson has a huge following internationally, but that has never translated into domestic box office gold. Johnny English is the best reviewed new movie of the week, but at 42% that speaks more to the poor quality of its competition than its own strength. At 2,236, it also had the smallest release of the three wide releases. Johnny English has already made $100 million internationally, but it will have to settle for $10 million opening weekend and approximately $30 million overall.

How to Deal has a shade more theatres than Johnny English, and a tiny fraction better reviews at Rotten Tomatoes than Bad Boys II, (currently less than 0.4% better.) But it will have to settle for fifth place with just under $10 million. (I told you they were close.)

In other box office news, Finding Nemo will earn almost $6 million to top $300 million for its run. This will put it ahead of Star Wars: Attack of the Clones and into 14th place. At this pace, a spot in the top ten is a real possibility.

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Filed under: Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl, Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines, Bad Boys II, Johnny English, How to Deal