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Two Way Race for Top Spot

December 12th, 2003

It's a two-way race for top spot this weekend with Something's Gotta Give targeting a mature audience while Stuck on You goes for the decidedly immature. A third movie, Love Don't Cost a Thing is also opening wide but it might have trouble just making the top five.

Last year at roughly this time, About Schmidt proved that quality movies directed at an older audience could succeed at the box office. This year Jack Nicholson is back in Something's Gotta Give, and while the reviews are not as strong as for About Schmidt it should see better short term results. First place and $25 million are in the cards. And with good word-of-mouth, and maybe some award season buzz, $100 million isn't out of the question.

Prospects for the latest Farrelly Brothers' movie, Stuck on You is look better than their previous film, Shallow Hal. It has better reviews and a wider release. The real concern is whether the subject matter too weird for them to make it work. And while it is weird, I don't think it's too weird, at least for the first week. Look for $24 million but an uncertain future.

This weekend we'll see just how much of an effect last weekend's snowstorm has on The Last Samurai. Tom Cruise's films have historically had very good legs, and this film should be no different. Expect a drop of just more than 33% to $16 million.

Love Don't Cost a Thing is a remake of the 80's classic Can't Buy Me Love. Yeah, I never saw it either. The original made a little more than $30 million back in 1987 and I don't expect this version to make much more. Reviews are really bad at just 24% positive, (and about half that for the Cream of the Crop reviewers. Add in the low theatre count of just 1,844 and you get less than $8 million and a fourth place finish.

After surprising most analysts last weekend, Honey has had trouble holding onto its audience. By Wednesday it had lost more than 90% of Friday's box office. This weekend it will make just over $6 million, but considering that was its first week's prediction the studio should still be happy.

This weekend The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers - Extended Edition is being released in 126 theatres. It should make about as much money as The Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring - Extended Edition made last week. All this before Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King opens on Wednesday to near record crowds.

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Filed under: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, Something's Gotta Give, The Last Samurai, About Schmidt, Stuck On You, Honey, Love Don't Cost a Thing