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Friday Estimates: Pixels Struggling in Crowded Market

July 25th, 2015


Three mid-tier new releases combined with three returning hits made for a very crowded market on Friday, with all six films earning over $5 million for the day. Pixels emerged the winner with $9.2 million, according to studio estimates, but that far from guarantees a weekend win for the film. Based on previous opening weekend ratios for Adam Sandler movies, we can expect a Friday-weekend multiplier for the film around 2.9, which puts it on course for a $27 million debut. Current studio tracking suggests it will fall short of that mark, with more like $24 million. Either way, that’s not a great start for a film with an $88 million budget and a seemingly attractive premise. Sandler’s drawing power is clearly on the wane, at least domestically. The film has somewhat better prospects overseas, and early reports show it performing well.

In second place on Friday, Ant-Man posted about $7.2 million for the day, down 68% from its opening Friday. The film continues to track very slightly ahead of The Incredible Hulk, and is headed for a similar final box office of around $135 million. For the weekend, it should also end up with around $24 million, so we are looking at a tight race for top spot. Ant-Man’s better reviews give it a slight edge at this point. For a comparison of Marvel’s franchise starters, see here.

Third spot on Friday went to Minions, with $6.7 million, down 55% from last Friday. That points towards a weekend of around $22 million, possibly a little more, so we could yet have a three-way race for first place for the weekend as a whole.

In fourth, Paper Towns came in with an estimated $6.3 million, which is a slightly disappointing start, but still very solid for a film costing $11 million to make. It should hit $15 million for the weekend. Southpaw will be right on its tail. The boxing drama earned $6.2 million on Friday, and, based on a strongly positive response from audiences , it should overtake Paper Towns for the weekend as a whole with perhaps $16 million or $17 million.

- Friday Estimates

Bruce Nash,

Filed under: Friday Night Box Office, Ant-Man, Pixels, Minions, Paper Towns, Southpaw